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Old 04-19-2020, 01:56 AM
  #65  
sailingfun
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Joined APC: Feb 2008
Posts: 19,308
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[QUOTE=MaxQ;3035545]
Originally Posted by sailingfun View Post

Just doing simple math from the USA CDC numbers I listed a few posts back.

If we had the same death rate for Covid-19 as from the Influenza rates we would currently be less than a 1,000 deaths. It is now over 37,000.

Or, to put it another way, if those influenza deaths had followed the Covid-19 death rates posted, the annual deaths would have been a low of 850,000 to the worst year (45,000,000 estimated cases) having over 2.26 million deaths. In the USA alone.

I am sure there are mitigating factors I am ignorant of, but even "fudge factoring" for that, the difference in rates of death between the two is far too large to dismiss.
What you are missing is that before you get listed as having Covid19 you basically need to be seriously ill. The vast majority of people who have it never get tested and even if they wanted a test are unable to get one in the US. Every single study where they have done antibody testing has shown vastly higher infection rates than the stats.
Orange County CA is a excellent example. 3 million people with one of the very highest Chinese and Asian population rates. These are very well off Chinese who traveled back and forth to China often including Wuhan. In the fall they had a spike in respiratory illness and flu. No one paid much attention. Now they have only 1500 cases and 36 deaths. How can that be? They should be inundated in cases. The simply answer is it already went through OC before the press and world went nuts.
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