Originally Posted by AnchorDown

With all due respect to everyone, I understand emotions are high right now. But to base any assumptions or draw any conclusions from anyone posting on an anonymous aviation chat board is foolish. I don't mean to sound condescending, but who the freak cares what some keyboard warrior thinks of you? Take a deep breath and just walk away or just lurk, that would be the best advice I can offer if anyone cares ;-).

Honestly I keep coming back to Spring 2021. Alaska does NOT have the International exposure the Big 3 have. I realize furlough numbers change based on LTD, STD, Mgmt pilots and anyone else out for various reasons... but the number the Union told me was furlough only makes sense if you're out 24 months. A chief recently told me it was VERY expensive to furlough. What the exact numbers are, I don't know or don't care. I can definitely see a lull in demand from Fall of 2020 until about Spring of 2021, then a ramp up for Summer 2021. If that's the case, furloughing pilots for under 12 months wouldn't theoretically make any sense. Also, I would expect another "round" of stimulus later in the year possibly for airlines. Whether Alaska would get any of that or not is anyones guess. I do believe Int'l traffic (meaning Asia, Europe, Australia) will take much longer to return, but Alaska has an advantage here.