Originally Posted by
AnchorDown
Sure, today, 82 airplanes are flying. 3 months from now? 4? 5? 6? Our CEO in the last webcast said if this environment remains the same, we will be "cost neutral" by December of 2020. I realize nobody knows what demand will be and I'm sure it will be tepid come May, and June. Hoping it starts to accelerate a little by July and August. Any kind of revenue we get will offset the numbers further into the positive. I believe they'll be ugly right now and thru June, but it will start to pick up at some point. Another round of stimulus in the Fall and a clearer picture in the Winter of 2020 for what Summer may look like in 2021. Also, if there's buyout incentives for guys to retire early, (especially if the government is footing the bill), that can only help mitigate. To furlough and make it equitable for the company, I'd say the pilots would have to be out conservatively 18 months. from Oct. 1st, 2020.... An accelerating economy will pick up as well with any kind of vaccine or breakthrough. Already the original factored numbers for this virus is way off. No reason to think everything else would be as well.
I agree with a lot of what you say, I just don’t think there’s any way to spool things up quickly enough again once things begin to improve to avoid furloughs, if it saves Alaska 5 cents they won’t hesitate to furlough.