The die was cast when Expressjet lost the 175 flying. Sure, nobody in the industry really saw the Covid19 virus coming or having the impact it did and that will probably be what drives the final nail in the coffin.
Does anyone really think that UAL purchased a major stake in Expressjet, awarded them 175 flying, and put a simulator across the street from their training center just to have them fly 25 aircraft? Think about it, does that make sense, financially or otherwise? The plan all along was to have ExpressJet be the 175 operator for United, at least as far as for the companies they owned a major stake in. The other part of the plan was to have TransStates and CommuteAir merge and be the 145 operator. Both of those carriers were having an extremely difficult time finding and keeping pilots. For a variety of reasons, that didn't happen. Here is where the plot thickens!
Remember, just before this mess got started, all regionals were struggling to find applicants. New hire bonuses were through the roof. United had started Aviate as a way to attract and retain pilots for their regional feed. Around the same timeframe ExpressJet was suffering poor performance with their 175 operation in ORD, primarily due to a ridiculous number of sick calls from very senior pilots who were determined to use their sick bank or lose it before retiring. Also remember during this timeframe the company and ALPA had been unable to reach a deal on the so called letter 2 negotiations. The company had been stalling these negotiations for over a year.
United met with Expressjet management right around this time. They were not happy with the 175 situation in ORD, but nevertheless presented a deal to have Expressjet take over the 145 flying from TSA after their operation was wound down. The 175 was the long term future of the company, but XJT management saw an opportunity for immediate growth by taking on the TSA flying. There was no way to take on the "new" 145s and also staff the 175s, so a decision was made to gamble the future of the company on quick growth. On paper, it seemed like it might be a good idea. More aircraft, more flying, more bases, etc. At least one very outspoken member of XJT's negotiating committee was against any of this. He almost spilled the beans about what was going on via social media over a month before anything was to be announced and was promptly forced to resign. He understood what losing the 175 flying meant long term!
Magically though, when this growth was in view, the company finally got serious about the letter 2 negotiations. An agreement in principle had been reached and was just a day or two away from being signed when the pandemic implications were first realized. The deal would have been a sweet one for most at XJT. There was going to be a pay raise and significant quality of life improvements for all. One of the sticking points was that TSA pilots were going to be allowed to transition to XJT, with longevity and seniority, some coming over as virtual street captains. Knowing that this wouldn't sit well with many, there was "hush money" involved to placate the troops. Interestingly, none of this was going to be put up for a vote. The MEC felt that it was such an awesome deal that few would complain, and if they did, it wouldn't be for very long. Who knows if the company would have backed out if in fact the deal had been signed after all of the new developments. My guess is they would have found a way to rescind the contract.
Nobody saw the problem the entire industry is facing coming, at least not in the magnitude that is now reality. The result is that XJT management doubled down and bet everything on the 145. The writing was on the wall when XJT didn't get additional 175s to fly. Those went to Mesa instead. And that writing was burned in when they had to hand over the 25 EMB 175s they were flying over to SkyWest, on an accelerated schedule no less. Hindsight is always 20/20, but it seems like XJT management made a foolish bet with people's jobs on the line. At least one person raised a stink about it, maybe not in the correct way, but he knew the long term future of the company was in the 175 program!