Clearly, for the whole industry, future prosperity depends on just how soon the public starts flying again. That depends on how quickly COVID tapers off and how much the media stops hyping it, as well as just how much long term damage this quarantine has done to the economy.

FWIW, my personal opinion is that predominantly domestic airlines with single type fleets (NK, F9, SWA (assuming the MAX remains the same type) and Alaska (because they’ll dump their 320s) ) will be less likely to furlough than anyone else and sooner to be calling up people from pools.

The people I believe are truly screwed right now are the junior people from the Big Three who will be displaced into furlough by the more senior widebody overseas pilots whose pax will be the last to return. But the HR departments for the airlines whose flying will return first - like F9 and NK, aren’t going to touch those people for fear they’ll lose them back to their original carriers after training them. They will instead prefer pool dwellers who have no seniority number anywhere else.

That’s my opinion anyway. Yours certainly may vary...