Big disclaimer...Based on yields from last year.
You could have 90% loads right now and not even break even because tickets are so cheap.
There is a lot of excess capacity in the system that needs to be reduced before airlines can return to profitability. I keep reminding people that even if miraculously a vaccine was released today, somehow manufactured for 8 billion people overnight, and magically distributed to everyone tomorrow, we would still be in an economic recession with tens of millions of jobless in the US alone.
COVID-19 was the tipping point. The economic recession (or depression if it gets there) is now what the airlines must fight.