new IATA report out, 62% load=breakeven point
05-05-2020, 05:05 AM
#1
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new IATA report out, 62% load=breakeven point
New IATA report out
Apparently, for 118 airlines worldwide, 62% is the breakeven load factor.
Link: https://twitter.com/WandrMe/status/1257644031733088259
Report: https://www.iata.org/en/iata-reposit...start-to-lift/
Apparently, for 118 airlines worldwide, 62% is the breakeven load factor.
Link: https://twitter.com/WandrMe/status/1257644031733088259
Report: https://www.iata.org/en/iata-reposit...start-to-lift/
Last edited by senecacaptain; 08-13-2020 at 05:31 AM.
05-05-2020, 06:16 AM
#2
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Big disclaimer...Based on yields from last year.
You could have 90% loads right now and not even break even because tickets are so cheap.
There is a lot of excess capacity in the system that needs to be reduced before airlines can return to profitability. I keep reminding people that even if miraculously a vaccine was released today, somehow manufactured for 8 billion people overnight, and magically distributed to everyone tomorrow, we would still be in an economic recession with tens of millions of jobless in the US alone.
COVID-19 was the tipping point. The economic recession (or depression if it gets there) is now what the airlines must fight.
You could have 90% loads right now and not even break even because tickets are so cheap.
There is a lot of excess capacity in the system that needs to be reduced before airlines can return to profitability. I keep reminding people that even if miraculously a vaccine was released today, somehow manufactured for 8 billion people overnight, and magically distributed to everyone tomorrow, we would still be in an economic recession with tens of millions of jobless in the US alone.
COVID-19 was the tipping point. The economic recession (or depression if it gets there) is now what the airlines must fight.
05-05-2020, 03:53 PM
#3
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Originally Posted by iahflyr
Big disclaimer...Based on yields from last year.
You could have 90% loads right now and not even break even because tickets are so cheap.
There is a lot of excess capacity in the system that needs to be reduced before airlines can return to profitability. I keep reminding people that even if miraculously a vaccine was released today, somehow manufactured for 8 billion people overnight, and magically distributed to everyone tomorrow, we would still be in an economic recession with tens of millions of jobless in the US alone.
COVID-19 was the tipping point. The economic recession (or depression if it gets there) is now what the airlines must fight.
You could have 90% loads right now and not even break even because tickets are so cheap.
There is a lot of excess capacity in the system that needs to be reduced before airlines can return to profitability. I keep reminding people that even if miraculously a vaccine was released today, somehow manufactured for 8 billion people overnight, and magically distributed to everyone tomorrow, we would still be in an economic recession with tens of millions of jobless in the US alone.
COVID-19 was the tipping point. The economic recession (or depression if it gets there) is now what the airlines must fight.
05-06-2020, 10:25 AM
#5
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If the math is correct, and TSA numbers from last year were consistently 2.1M-ish daily, then we need to be at 1.2, 1.3M-ish daily to be at 60%.
That is to break even
fingers crossed the TSA numbers keep ticking up
That is to break even
fingers crossed the TSA numbers keep ticking up
05-06-2020, 10:42 AM
#6
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Originally Posted by senecacaptain
If the math is correct, and TSA numbers from last year were consistently 2.1M-ish daily, then we need to be at 1.2, 1.3M-ish daily to be at 60%.
That is to break even
fingers crossed the TSA numbers keep ticking up
That is to break even
fingers crossed the TSA numbers keep ticking up
05-06-2020, 10:43 AM
#7
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Posts: 2,012
The other side of the yield coin is that if you shoot for 62%, you price a lot higher. The problem is not that prices are too high it’s that people don’t want to fly. If people suddenly want to fly, the top 60% of the market will yield out fine for the majors. All coach carriers will take a hit
05-11-2020, 08:15 AM
#10
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I enjoy the optimism as much as anyone, but I seem to remember that most large corporations have completely nixed their travel for this year. Many of them have nixed it into 2021. With out that travel, I doubt there is anyway we get to 60% load factors this year. But I hope I'm wrong.
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