Originally Posted by
JetPilotMike
Sorry, not following. How is it "obvious from the min/max?" The current Active pilots is exactly 4,457 more than the Min/Max number. So, how can you tell that isn't their furlough target number? Thanks. I'm a little over 4,000 from the bottom so I could go either way in this.
.
The Min/Max means nothing here. What matters is the number of NB FOs at the end of all the displacement(s), as the junior most FOs are most at risk of being F bombed. I took a whack at it the other day:
Displacement Bid 20-07D After a glance at the first snapshot yesterday, I am comfortable that my "high side" estimate of 2678 guys forced into NB FO seats is indeed high. Maybe 10-20% high. For example, tons of the displaced LAX 787 FOs are bidding into SFO 787 rather than staying at LAX as NB FOs.
If you don't feel like reading the whole thing here is the important conclusion:
"One thing this exercise makes clear is that the 4476 line pilot displacements does NOT equal anywhere near 4476 furloughs. Sadly, with the company starting the displacement training ball rolling ASAP it will make it easier to have a very large first round of furloughs this fall."