Originally Posted by
CLazarus
The Min/Max means nothing here. What matters is the number of NB FOs at the end of all the displacement(s), as the junior most FOs are most at risk of being F bombed. I took a whack at it the other day:
Displacement Bid 20-07D After a glance at the first snapshot yesterday, I am comfortable that my "high side" estimate of 2678 guys forced into NB FO seats is indeed high. Maybe 10-20% high. For example, tons of the displaced LAX 787 FOs are bidding into SFO 787 rather than staying at LAX as NB FOs.
If you don't feel like reading the whole thing here is the important conclusion:
"One thing this exercise makes clear is that the 4476 line pilot displacements does NOT equal anywhere near 4476 furloughs. Sadly, with the company starting the displacement training ball rolling ASAP it will make it easier to have a very large first round of furloughs this fall."
I had read someplace that it appeared that there would be about 1500ish FO's without a seat, so to speak, when the displacements are complete. I'd bet on that number for the initial furlough. At the most. A lot can change between now and October, and will. International economies are even starting to open. I'm not completely sold that our international operation will be doomed for a long period of time either.
Someone posted on the DAL section of this board about them adding flights in July to Europe out of JFK and loads are looking good.