Originally Posted by
Funk
My displacement WAG:
100% of MD88/90 pilots
15% of ER (mostly on the FO side)
ATL717B will carry pre-furlough excess
BONUS WAG: August - partial cancellation announcement and AE - cash bleeding has stopped and forward looking numbers justify slowly unpausing planned NB deliveries. NYC220B is the big growth category, with more senior 717Bs escaping NYC (and the rest of the system) for systemwide vacancies to support 321NEO deliveries. More junior MDs to 717 have no seat lock, but lack seniority to escape the TYS overnights stacked between 4 leg days shuttling between hubs and everywhere they hope not to layover.
Don't forget the 45 minute hub turns with an aircraft change.
I think we’ll see all ERs retired almost immediately. With the now under utilized 330, we just don’t need the ER lift. Boutique European destinations won’t be served for a couple of years, buying us time to rebuild international lift with a variety of Airbus products. 717s and 757s will see an accelerated sunset. The wild card is the 777, getting the ax if management enacts very deep cuts.
Well keep the 320s and 737-800s, with maybe tail-specific retirements.
I almost think they’ll have to open more 220 bases, just to carry the displacements. Cant have everyone sitting reserve in NYC! Ha!
I also think we’ll see the aircraft deliveries turned back on (220s, 321s, 330s) now that mgmt has had time to observe the landscape and figure out a plan. Will the 350s get turned back on, tho?