Originally Posted by Excargodog

Well why don’t we provide the ACCURATE quote and I will respond...



EXACTLY how many furloughs AA and UAL will have to do is totally dependent upon the speed with which both Domestic and International flying returns and it is generally assumed that international flying will be the slowest to return. You will note that for any of the LCC/ULCC carriers, domestic flying will also have to return for them to avoid furloughs, but even with NKs Central America flights, none of the LCC/ULCC carriers are highly dependent on International flying.

Not so, UAL, Delta, and AA. This makes it a double whammy for the Big Three, made worse by the fact that their most senior personnel are flying the routes that are likely to take the longest coming back.

Now you can be as sarcastic as you desire demanding EXACT numbers which of course I’m sure even you are aware are not possible to provide without knowing EXACTLY how quick international flying is coming back and EXACTLY how many senior people can be induced to accept early retirement, so PRECISE quantification is anybody’s guess.

Notwithstanding that, anyone with an appreciation of queuing theory, type ratings, and how the seniority system will drive a training cascade For carriers with multiple type ratings will realize the QUALITATIVE differences affecting the different carriers, even if they are unable to give EXACT numbers.

Certainly some of the Big Three management realize this as they make efforts to retire fleet types early and pare their number of fleet types, but while that may be helpful, unless both Domestic and International flying return promptly it will still likely force them to move senior pilots from one type rating to another with the attendant training costs and downtime that requires in a far more costly manner than the single-type carriers who need to merely furlough their most junior people and downgrade their most junior captains..

Or don’t you see that?