Originally Posted by
CLazarus
Mid-Displacement update based on today's snapshot - with 4151 or 88% of displacees having bids in there are currently 2124 guys who will wind up in Bus/737 FO seats. So, if the trends hold the high end of those winding up on the Bus/737 would be about 2400... on top of the 3000+ FOs there already.
Before they rescinded 309 displacements, I'd estimated a high end of 2678 forced into NB seats -
Displacement Bid 20-07D Some of the NB bases guys are bidding to are significantly different than my first guesstimate, here the current totals.
CLE - 39
DCA - 396
DEN - 325
EWR - 378
GUM - 16
IAH - 252
LAX - 202
ORD - 274
SFO - 349
Here's the part that's grim, we've hired about 2350 since 23 Jan 2016 (if you don't know why this date is significant, see 1-c-1-h). In his displacement announcement, BQ said "there should be enough information conveyed in this displacement for you to make informed conclusions". All by itself, this first displacement is setting us up almost perfectly to cut guys up to that hiring date. I've made an informed conclusion and am gonna throw up in my mouth a bit now.
Pretty interesting conclusion and there's probably some truth to it. The unknowns are still a plenty-
How much flying comes back in the Fall?
How much flying comes back for Spring/Summer 2021?
How many guys are retiring between now and that time period?
How many guys take an early out IF it ever gets offered?
How many months and on which seat do they offer SRL's? (NOT E-SRL's!)
Does the union negotiate any sort of program to save some jobs?
What is the timeline for furloughs.. ie, everyone on the same day or staggered?
In the end, I fear that I was wrong with my positive 0/Zero furloughs prediction. I believe that between the E-SRL and the potential of furloughing everyone hired in 2019 and up.. we are looking at the bottom 1000-2000 as being Seasonal Workers and being let go in the fall, only to have some of them recalled in the Spring of 2021.
We can go on and on.. but UNTIL we have Displacement Bid 2 (June?!) and UNTIL the company actually comes out and notifies those people on the fence (August?).. we just don't know.
As CL mentioned, 23 Jan 2016 in a known cutoff date. It's a trigger that I don't believe the company wants to pull. My opinion.
Hang in there everyone~
Motch