Originally Posted by
CLazarus
Mid-Displacement update based on today's snapshot - with 4151 or 88% of displacees having bids in there are currently 2124 guys who will wind up in Bus/737 FO seats. So, if the trends hold the high end of those winding up on the Bus/737 would be about 2400... on top of the 3000+ FOs there already.
Before they rescinded 309 displacements, I'd estimated a high end of 2678 forced into NB seats -
Displacement Bid 20-07D Some of the NB bases guys are bidding to are significantly different than my first guesstimate, here the current totals.
CLE - 39
DCA - 396
DEN - 325
EWR - 378
GUM - 16
IAH - 252
LAX - 202
ORD - 274
SFO - 349
Here's the part that's grim, we've hired about 2350 since 23 Jan 2016 (if you don't know why this date is significant, see 1-c-1-h).
In his displacement announcement, BQ said "there should be enough information conveyed in this displacement for you to make informed conclusions". All by itself, this first displacement is setting us up almost perfectly to cut guys up to that hiring date. I've made an informed conclusion and am gonna throw up in my mouth a bit now.
Being that 30% of our list is around 4,000 pilots, considering what is going on, and how many analysts predict the recovery will play out, “only furloughing 2,300” could be viewed as an optimistic position. Furlough notices can go out in June for an October 1 effective date. From how I read the furlough section of the contract, none of those pilots would need to be trained according to a displacement award. Simply holding them at their current pay and then furloughing will be cheaper than training them. It will also free up slots at TK for those who will survive this cut. I don’t like how this is turning out, but this bid is definitely a pretty effective way to reduce quickly while adhering to the contract.