Originally Posted by
Excargodog
I think the legacies will be hurt fairly badly if international flying doesn’t rebound quickly, even (and perhaps especially) if domestic does. Too many fleet types and too much seniority in the international wide-body equipment will turn furloughing the junior people into an atrociously expensive training cascade for those not furloughed.
I mostly agree with your thoughts, but the biggest fallacy is that training costs actual money. It does not. Training is free. Training has an “opportunity cost” in that if someone is in training, they are being paid, yet not on the line making money. However right now when you can’t furlough anyone until Oct 1, there is zero opportunity cost as a pilot is either sitting at home being paid, or in training being paid. The cost of training right now is $0.
Fortunately United seems to realize this, which is why they announced a large displacement bid and are has training effective dates starting almost immediately.
American published their displacement bid but it is much smaller, and Delta still has yet to make a move. Any training after October 1 will have an opportunity cost associated with it.