Originally Posted by
SoFloFlyer
Dr. Fauci said that a vaccine is about 18-24 months out. So I really hope it’s not gonna be dependent on a vaccine because it would be REALLY bad for the economy. Lockdowns aren’t sustainable. It worked to flatten the curve, but it’s not a feasible option to completely eradicate the virus. I just Really hope people continue to be responsible, start going out so we can start turning this economic machine.
Originally Posted by
Irishblackbird
Dr. Fauci has been wrong or reversed his opinion on several points. In the beginning he said that the virus would unlikely be an issue in the US, then he completely missed the mark on the number of deaths several times, and reversed his belief on the effectiveness of wearing masks. Now we are supposed to believe that there will be a vaccine in 18-24 months? We may never see a vaccine. I really hope when our industry returns to economic prosperity is not based on his prognostications.
It is dependent on a vaccine. Even if everybody opens up now, people are still scared stiff, air travel will be small fraction of what it once was for years.
But all of the experts saying 18-24 months for a vaccine are just hedging their bets to the worst case.
There is a massive full-court press across government (multiple governments) and industry to develop vaccines, and do it quickly. There are already 100 in development, with several in clinical trials. The trials are expected to be expedited as soon as they see some results, and several companies are starting to manufacture the vaccine to lead the problem (at risk of having to pour it all down the drain if the tests fail).
While it's remotely possible that it will prove technically challenging to develop a vaccine, odds are very good that several in development now will pan out. COVID is not some bizarre thing (like HIV, which actually eats the immune cells which respond to it), it's a fairly straightforward virus from a familiar family. Unlike in the old days of trial and error, vaccines are now developed by computer modelling of genetic function. The first vaccine to enter trials (in WA state, because that was ground zero in the US) was developed by computer modelling literally within a few hours after China released the full covid genome data to the world. The computer model should work fine, what's unknown pending clinical trials is safety, side effects, and efficacy.
There's always some uncertainty in biology, it's vastly complex, so there is a small but real possibility there will be no vaccine in a timely manner. It's a pretty low possibility, but you'd better hope something pans out because this industry (and the economy in general) will be a shadow of it's former self for the foreseeable future without a vaccine.
If you want a rational perspective on vaccines (and you should if you're an airline pilot in the bottom 80% of your list), look to academic publications and impartial news outlets. The big agenda-driven media outlets are naturally hyping the "no vaccine ever or any time soon" party line to maximize hysteria. If that were true there wouldn't be many dozens of companies investing big-time in vaccine manhattan projects.