Originally Posted by
rickair7777
1. How do you account for mil pilots? They all have ATP's if they're in the airlines but they don't factor into the success rates for civilians.
2. Many private and corporate pilots get ATP's for insurance, many of those never pursued the airlines.
3. Some foriegn pilots earn ATP's here and then go home.
That said, 30% success rate to legacies for civilian career-oriented training starts seems accurate based on people I know. Historically. I thought it would be better for a while but COVID put the damper on that.
1. Didn't
2. Didn't
3. Didn't
I just took what the FAA said were active ATPs. Calculated the numbers at legacies. I am doing a swag here not going for accuracy. So I am probably off by a significant factor but still don't think its greater than 50% from what I see.
In all three cases I didn't think the numbers would move the needle all that much. Maybe we see a 10% increase? How may active military pilots are there? I did some googlefu and came up with this.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...itary_aircraft Removing UAS from the equation I get a total of 12,268 aircraft. (Scary what you can find on the Internet). Assuming 3 pilots per aircraft I get around 30K? Given your background you probably have access to better data than I so I would be interested to hear if the number is that far off.
Like you I have always assumed it was about 30% that made it but I had never sat down to do the math till today. I actually think it's even lower than that. I think if we look at it from student pilot starts the number that make it to ATP at a legacy is probably less than 10%. I've heard, but can't prove, around 10% finish most college programs. But I am not sure how to put together the data to support this. Besides its a nice day outside and I still have beer in the fridge......