Originally Posted by
OTZeagle1
Although I appreciate any good news, this is horse S. When compared to Alaska’s and the industries modeling, we are only consistently missing markers to this point, trending bellow those low expectations. In my mind it’s the same as putting out a pod cast saying, “company only sees this as short term” and “there has been no mention of furloughs”, when every union leader has been briefed by both their and company experts, that this industry will be 20-25% smaller in 2021, when compared to 2019. Do you really think WB would have sold his entire stake at or near the bottom if this was going to recover quickly? You don’t think with him owning 10% of the entire industry, he wouldn’t have had some industry experts, like really goods ones, pouring over the numbers. You don’t think Boeing, Airbus, DAL, SWA, UAL CEO’s would have said 3-5 years if it were not the expected outcome? Pilots are not children, they can handle the truth, whether we want it to be true or not. The recent green shoots in our industry represent the possibility of solvency, not the possibility that we and others don’t shrink significantly.
I don’t live in the land of rainbows and unicorns so when it comes to air travel this is the worst crisis we have ever faced however, as an eternal optimist, I try to find the light at the end of the tunnel to help balance the never ending doom and gloom so, I’ll take any positive trend, green graphs, and any possibility of solvency all day every day. Nevertheless, I am also a realist and I am fully aware of the difficult long road ahead. My post wasn’t meant to treat pilots as children and shield them from bad news. My post was simply there to share a little glimmer of positive trends among the apocalyptic madness we live in. In hindsight, next time I’ll just quote from the article with my own explanations for better discussions...lesson learned.
In regards to how I see the forecasts for the future of the industry, I see lots of coulds, mights, ifs, and maybes. Just like hurricanes forecasts, we have a general picture of what’s ahead yet, the final most accurate predictions don’t become relatively accurate until right before the storm hits. To use your own words from a previous post, “This is different and changes daily”. The way I see it, due to the lack of previous data and the constantly changing landscape, we have to let this play out and wait for the economy to fully open, (while waiting for a possible second wave of infections), to truly assess and more accurately predict the upcoming damages but, and call me naive, these little unexpected trends give me some hope for a better and less damaging outcome. Again, the articles backfire on me and it is all my fault. When it comes to the airline industry I have learned not to deal in absolutes. Experts have been wrong in the past and early predictions usually change for better or worse as time goes on. Only time will tell. On a personal note, when it comes to the airlines you mentioned and their predictions, I remain skeptical of those negotiating contracts pre-Covid and the CEOs that made millions on stock buy backs. At this point, as I previously stated, I am hoping for the best while preparing for the worst.
Shyguy I agree we will have a second wave of infections here in the US but I don’t know if another shutdown will happen under our political climate. I believe the current administration will keep the economy open regardless and we’ll just power through.