Originally Posted by
Qotsaautopilot
Cant tell if this is flame bait or naivety. Literally every airline is most likely going to furlough this fall. I like what I’m seeing around town and hope it will continue without mass fear when the inevitable spike in cases comes. However, even if we can get two thirds of the fleet flying this summer at near full loads that’s a long way off from hiring and will mean furloughs this fall almost certainly. New hire classes are at least a year or more off I’m afraid.
If we have 2/3rds of the the fleet flying at near full loads by the end of the summer, that positive of a trend would definitely not indicate furloughs, and may even have us reconsider pushing deliveries.
We aren’t waiting out the economy, we are waiting out groupthink and mass psychology. Similar to that scene in the movie Jaws when everyone is on the beach afraid to go swimming until the first people decide to risk it.
I remember 2007 the big scare of toys, tools, personal products, etc. from Chy-na possibly having lead paint. That Xmas season was a disaster for retailers, and there was the big “Buy American” push. Been to Harbor Freight lately?
Consumer confidence is difficult to predict, but as soon as people see friends/family/neighbors on a cheap holiday without catching the ‘Rona the pendulum can start swinging the other way quick.
The next few weeks should give some insight as people start poking their heads out and the dreaded 2nd wave doesn’t materialize.