Originally Posted by SONORA PASS

My GUESS is it goes something like this:

Training will likely begin a max effort this week to assign Transition/RQ training to the awarded NB FO's above 70% seniority line. For those needing full transition they will likely pair F/O's; the NB FO will be their immediate training focus.

Displacement bid 20-07D2 is likely going to be published between Wednesday and Friday this week. Getting it out by Friday would provide the 30 days required by 8-E-2 allowing the effective date to be June 29th (the July bid month). This bid would probably focus on pushing any excess NB CA and WB/756 FO to NB FO and might target some larger NB FO imbalances. Be careful on any "sport bidding" on this one, as the results of this displacement awards may have a long shelf life.

The results of that displacement would be out somewhere around Monday June 22. It is highly probable following that award the company will issue furlough notices.

During the last week of June they would probably issue furlough notices to comply with the 90 day requirement in Section 1-I-2. This notification date would allow the company to furlough pilots hired before January 23, 2016 if needed. This also would trigger 7-I which exempts pilots notified of furlough from being displaced on the next round of displacement bidding.

Displacement bid 20-08D (round 3) could be out the last week of June or it could easily be a vacancy bid instead. A displacement would likely be smaller and focus on any gross imbalances of NB F/O's. If the displacement is issued it would likely be followed by the vacancy bid in late July to backfill any categories that ended up short. Again, it is very possible that the vacancy bid could come before the 3rd round of displacements.

This would all result in having the 70% staffing done on paper by the end of July. The training backlog would be large, but likely manageable.

In August and September, any signs of demand recovery would then be weight against the potential risks of COVID round 2 this winter in determining whether to cancel some furlough notices. Let's hope that a fast recovery is the case!

This whole thing is extremely dynamic, and of course is subject to positive and negative changes going forward. I do not know what will happen, but the timeline above is likely very likely if the present industry expectations do continue as forecast.

Hoping for the best case, but preparing otherwise.

SP