SONORA PASS

Andy,

Honestly I am not sure at all, and could only take a guess.
This would be my GUESS based on the targets provided in the May 8th crew resource update:

777 Using that update it appears the 777 is heavy in SFO and light in EWR, but total number of 777 crews is close to desired level. Not sure they want to try and risk fixing the imbalance with the displacement process, and might just shift flying between EWR and SFO. The SFO 777 FO might see some cuts if they forecast a few excess SFO 787 CA coming down.

787 Most are slightly over with DCA well over and EWR way under. Probably also want to avoid retraining 787 to 777 and address imbalances with shifted flying. The DCA 787 CA and IAH 787 CA likely to be listed in displacement. In the right seat IAH 787 FO, ORD 787 FO and maybe DCA 787 FO.

756 CA seats are light and FO over. Doubt any 756 CA listed, but would expect EWR 756 FO, IAH 756 FO and maybe some ORD 756 FO.

737/320 No guidance was provided. Based on past history there might be some minor left seat displacements in bases that picked up extra. As far as FO, it is VERY risky for the company to displace too many from the NB right seat as many will opt for full transition (737 to 320 or 320 to 737) making that an undesirable option. With the training backlog, that is not likely at this point, but never underestimate the company to try it...

This is just a guess from a line pilot. Things seem to be trending in a positive direction, and hopefully the company will factor that forecast into their plans.

SP

O2pilot

The company would stop the 737/320 with people trying to stay in base by just doing when they did with Captain seniority on displacement #1. Just pick a number in base and force those pilots into another base. True, they could opt to switch equipment, but its not likely. Nobody really wants to go through training on a plane they have already figured out just to screw with the company. The company might loosen up base trade rules or flat out have a vacancy to solve being short in a narrowbody FO category.

The WB Captain overs are not horrendous, except for DCA. Keep in mind that many of the pilots displacing into 777 and 787 CA categories still have to be trained, and while they are waiting to be trained retirements aren’t stopping. By the time they get them all trained, there will be far less in those bases. If they need 200 Captains in a category, and they have 240, and they know that 60 are retiring in the next year, they will probably just leave them and let the software that builds flying just deal with it, like they did with EWR 756 category doing so much west coast to Hawaii flying, despite having pilot bases on the west coast.

SONORA PASS

O2 Pilot,

Good points!

I agree that the WB CA numbers must factor in retirements and hopefully any potential early outs. No doubt they should error on the plus side with WB CA.

As far as the NB FO to NB FO, not so sure they will risk the unintended consequences of having too many freeze free and move entitled bids unless they are in the projected furlough range. Using the same number for 320/737 in base will work to force pilots to another base, but they could get burned if they do not factor in the potential of full transition bids instead of laterals.

It looks like the training center will be full training the pilots displaced into NB FO followed by those going to NB CA. Adding those going NB to NB on top of all of that could risk triggering 8-F-10 release from work.

My GUESS is they will announce whatever furlough plans they have sometime in mid to late June and then afterwards address any large NB imbalances with that in mind. TDY and forced flying could be used to cover the NB imbalance during the resulting training backlog that might result.

Hope the ground stop is cancelled soon, and we can resume vacancy bids and hiring right where we left off!

SP