Thank you

 

I passed information I got. I’m sure it’s evolving as I type. I also know some training has already been cancelled.

Big picture is that you can’t draw a conclusion on the number to be furloughed from the training assignments.

Lee

 

^ ^ ^
This

Especially considering the displacement results were released on a Saturday during a long holiday weekend and pilots were drawing "conclusions" within hours by trying to look at training assignments. You can't take bad data, or in this case almost zero data, and over extrapolate that into anything useful.

We'll know a little bit more with each passing day until October 1 and nothing is set in stone until it happens. Or doesn't happen.

 

I get the point about drawing strict conclusions about furloughs based on training assignments, BUT there has got to be some correlation. Carlson has said they don't intend to train pilots in positions they aren't expected to actually hold. That is true for pilots in 'intermediate' bump positions (eg 777FO to super junior 737CAP) and it is almost certainly true for pilots they intend to furlough. Why would they train a 757FO in their bump 737FO position if they are likely going to be furloughed? It's common sense that they will train the pilots they intend to remain as 737 and 320 FOs. They are executing a plan that has been pretty consistent, but we all hope doesn't have to be executed. Because the plan is not firm they haven't explicitly tied a number of furloughs to their plan, but the training plan gives us as clue. The only reason you shouldn't draw conclusions is because they may change the plan.

 

After the notes I've read from yesterday's town hall and especially the fact that they've pulled 737s, 757s, and 787s out of storage, I'm now expecting a much smaller furlough on 1 Oct.

Since the company is looking for the cheapest solution, I'll ask this question based on furlough pay. How many pilots will have less than 3 years of service on 1 Oct?
That would put furlough pay anywhere from zero (probies) to 1 month of pay. If they're all recalled in time to be trained for summer 2022 (or earlier), all that would be required is an RQ2. It wouldn't be expensive to furlough that bottom group.

If anyone has insight on future bookings, I'd be curious to hear how they are looking.

 

I absolutely agree there is correlation. I'm simply on the side that's suggesting that we can't draw firm conclusions yet.

The training plan is only partially loaded for June and there's further displacement and vacancy cycles coming up. It makes sense for the company to prioritize the training for those pilots who they know will be outside the grey area before putting a sharp pencil to paper. We'll obviously know much more as each step of the process continues.

And as you mentioned, the plan will change as it progresses. It always does. I'm presuming that we'll have a really good idea later this summer and it would not surprise me if the company issues too many 120-day notices only to fine tune the actual cutoff later. They are trying to maintain maximum flexibility and its easy to CNX notices later. We've seen this show before, unfortunately.

 

That's a better way of explaining my thoughts 👍.

 

I believe it’s very, very safe to assume that those scheduled for downgrade full quals (NB CAP to FO in the other NB) will not get furloughed on Oct 1st. Carlson is too smart and methodical to send people willy-nilly to TK for a month only to send them right out the door....with 4.5 months of pay at their CAP rate, no less. So there are already data points from specific file numbers starting to show up, not on the CCS staffing page but actual class dates, and we will know soon who is actually attending. Ask around a bit.

 

After looking at it a little closer, the next Displacement might not be issued until early next week; or more specifically sometime after 12CT on Monday. That would make it 20-08D as it would not have the 8-E-2 30 days for the July bid period.

The section 8-I-4 Base Trade window is now open and closes Monday at 12CT. Not sure, but it appears possible that a Base Trade award could change the junior man number at a specific BSE while the displacement bid is still open. I can't imagine that ALPA would even consider giving any relief on this (I sure hope not), and expect the company in turn may not want to take that risk.

Hopefully the travel demand outlook will continue to improve over the next few days as well resulting in a much smaller displacement bid.

SP

 

As of now, which BESs do you expect to be displaced on the next bid?