For some perspective for us outsiders, what is the rough DOH of FO 2300 and most junior narrow body CA?

 

Agree. Scooter and Carlson both have experience with downturns but nothing like this event. They are trying to figure it out as they go. However, it does look like Carlson has learned a lot from past downturns.

Control what you can. Continue to prepare for the worst and hope for the best.

On the bright side, TSA through put is up to about 12% of the same day last year. Amazing event.

 

Jan 2016 is around 2300 from the bottom.

 

From the updated junior man list, DOH of junior NB CA was legacy UAL and hired Sept 98. If it helps, Legacy CAL equivalent DOH would be Jan 06 to complete the picture.

Lee

 

Bingo.....

(Below excerpt taken from the System Schedule Committee Update email dated May 2, 2020.)

MIN-MAX Bulletin

The Vacancy MIN-MAX bulletin accompanies the Surplus Letter. It really doesn't have any applicability to a displacement except to indicate from which Categories the Company is displacing and to establish the number of pilots used when evaluating percentage bids. All other numbers are advisory only. As stated above, you can bump into any Category your seniority can hold. The MAX number for the Category has no effect on where you can bump.

 

So for example SFO 737 FO with 203 max but now 391 FO’s doesn’t that Indicate that particular BES is over staffed by nearly 200 pilots? Should only make matters worse with SFO 777/787 also showing a lot of pilots now over the Max. Or am I misunderstanding the point of the Max number when it comes to displacements?

 

I think the numbers will start making sense when you see the next displacement. There will be displacements to remove the excess 787, 777 and 756 in bases where there are 300% manning in some cases. They will bump to NB seats and then you will start to see which NB bases are going to be senior. Once this is done, a 3rd displacement will thin the crowds in the NB bases and junior people will start finding themselves moved into SFO and possibly EWR.

 

Disregard the max. Until Carlson publishes a desired/estimated size of category like he did for the international side, its a meaningless number.

 

My earlier point was that the Min/Max Chart's applicability is more so for the Vacancy Bid's, has very little relevancy to a Displacement Bid. It only serves as an "accompanying document" to the Surplus Letter (Another excerpt below from the SSC MEC email dated May 2, 2020)

I realize what you're saying, wanting a tangible number as to what's the "Max" for various BES's. As the other's posted above, Paul Carlson is going to trim/cut/re-shape the staffing numbers in Round(s) 2 (or 3,4,?) in the very near future, look no further than the overstaffing as you pointed out within Round 1 results. It was also noted in other thread's on topic that PC (the Company) got "burned" in times past with a large displacement, thus PC being an M.I.T. Grad/Numbers Guy, he's trying to minimize the past "mistakes/cost" this time around.

Going forward, I would keep an eye on the "Crew Resources Report" (under Flying Together--My Work--Crew Resources) when the next D-Bid is published. If you look at the most current Crew Resources Report (dated May 8th), you will be able to see the "Tentative Head Count" Chart for the WB Global BES's used in Round 1. It was touched on earlier/above in the thread, most likely when Carlson sends out Round 2, there "might" be a "Tentative Head Count" Chart published that's more focused on NB number's as well. This may serve as a tool to give you a better idea of what their "Tentative Head Count" target is going forward.

Surplus Letter and MIN-MAX Bulletin

There are two official documents published by the Company for a displacement: the Surplus letter and the MIN-MAX bulletin. The required information for both is detailed in the UPA. The Surplus Letter details the Categories involved, the surplus closing date, the number of pilots being surplused, the list of pilots being surplused and the Junior Man in Operation matrix. The published number of pilots being displaced is the number of active pilots being displaced. Pilots in supervisory positions and pilots on leaves will still be displaced but they don't count towards the number of pilots displaced from the Category.

 

Thank you all for the reply to my question. I appreciate hearing all of your input!