Originally Posted by
duvie
Pure speculation ahead:
I think if you see them stop training right at the 70% mark, I take that as evidence of Mr. Kirby playing games. I highly doubt the furloughs will go that deep, I think he is making a point to be consistent with the 30% staffing cut to try and scare people into some sort of contract change/taking leaves. They can continue training the 70 to 85% through the fall and winter to be ready for next summer. It definitely keeps him flexible for both potential up and downturns.
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You might be looking too deep into it.
-We've heard 30% from SK
-We've heard 30% from the P2P video
-On VERY limited data points the training assignments indicate 30% so far (but only 24 hours worth of training notifications)
The METAR, TAF, and ATIS are all painting the same picture so far.
As far as contract changes and scare tactics, that all started before the end of March. Of course they've already asked. LOA 20-01 didn't come out of thin air. It was born with some sort of ask or threat. We're past scare tactic time. Thinking that 30% is just a scare tactic could foster false hope.
We intercept the GS on June 3rd (next week) and cross the FAF on July 3rd. We're not past the point of them asking for something or seeing some sort of other LOA, but we're past playing games time. It's for real.
On the numbers, UAL didn't inflate the number after 9/11 and they didn't inflate it in 08. On both they came in +/- 200 folks. The 30% isn't official yet but whatever number they announce will be the number they really intend to furlough.
Add: Possible early out's one June 1 and voluntary furloughs could help the current 9656 number.