Originally Posted by Scoop

I have been wrong before but I doubt we are looking at another lost decade for multiple reasons such as:



**Back then all the legacies were extremely inefficient with LOT bidding, trips touching etc. Switching from that to PBS really hurt but this time we were running a lean operation.



** Most of the legacies parked hundreds of FE planes resulting in hundreds of FEs switching to FO.



** Age 65 with the pension loss basically eliminated most retirements for 5 years.



** Major mergers with huge efficiencies reducing plenty of flying.



IMHO those were very large contributors to the lost decade none of which we are looking at now. Throw in some early outs and hopefully this episode will be short lived. Then again Covid appears to be the blackest of black swans so who is to say the asteroids wont hit next year.



Scoop

Originally Posted by Big E 757

I am glad I read the rest of the thread before responding to the OP, because you said exactly what I would have said, only you did it better. 9/11 did crush the Industry, but by the time I got furloughed in March of 2002, our planes were mostly full. The problem was our yield. Every time we tried to raise prices, others would follow,but if memory serves, NW wouldn’t raise prices and we would rescind the price hike within a couple days. Management would say every time we raise prices $10 one way and $20 round trip, we lost millions in advanced bookings within hours. I don’t know if it’s true or not, but we also had JetBlue growing like crazy with cheap labor and low overhead. That would have resolved itself with “capacity discipline” within a year or two.



The biggest hit to the lost decade was the retirement age change and the consolidation that occurred. Combined, they reduced the need for pilots drastically. I have no problem giving guys who lost their pensions an extra 5 years to make it up, don’t get me wrong, but combined with the mergers that occurred, contributed to a lack of need for pilots. I don’t see this as being even a 5 year event.



By next summer, I think things will be back to normal. By 2022, we will be making big profits again. I read somewhere that we will achieve herd immunity in November, but even if we don’t, or if that doesn’t make people more comfortable, we will certainly have a vaccine by next spring. By next summer, in my humble, unscientific opinion, we will be cash flow positive again. When I got furloughed after 9/11, there was no talk about lowering ALV’s to save our jobs. And Management isn’t any different, at heart today. The only reason they may be willing to entertain a lowering of ALV’s this time versus 20 years ago.....is because they believe this will be short lived, as well. They don’t want to be scrambling to catch up 6-8 months from now. Just my opinion, and depending on what the terms are, I will vote for what’s best for all of us, not just me. If they really do approach us for an ALV reduction, with iron clad language that no furloughs will occur, or else we snap back to normal levels, that will actually be good news, as they’re trying to keep everyone available for the recovery. Again, this is just my opinion, and I am worried about the state of our industry, but I do believe things will come back quickly.