Originally Posted by
m3113n1a1
I think they are being realistic. In the memo they say that the plan all along was the 2300ish by the end of the year, and then another 1600 furloughs during 2021.
This is why I think furloughs go deeper than 2558 here. Sure maybe only 2558 this year, but I think it continues until this thing turns around.
CFO PJ seems to think that there is not much more cost savings to be had. Between the VEOP and any other potential furloughs we will have cut ~15%+ of our pilots. I think we have “shrank” to the point management feels comfortable with to be in place for a recovery. Could it change? Sure. Would CARES 2 change the conversation, absolutely.
If we furlough the full 2558 plus 2000ish VEOP we would be down 27% of our pilot group in 18 months. Cutting beyond that level means the company/industry/economy is all in jeopardy as that means almost zero recovery has happened in a span of 2 years. Look how quickly things changed May-July. When recovery begins it’ll be noticeable.
Right now the industry and the economy has paused in large part to corporate America throwing in the towel for 2020, they are assuming 2021 will be a recovery year. They have been afforded that opportunity by CARES 1 providing corporate well fare to wait and read the scene (ironically everyone like to bash the $600 a week for the reason recovery is slow).
My uninformed, view from the flight deck, opinion is that 2021 will limp in and start slow as the election and vaccine result starts to sink in. Spring will see the beginnings of corporate dealing happen. By the fall there will be opportunity every where for all industries for whoever survived this horrible year. Or we sink into a world wide depression and series of terrible wars that shape the rest of our millennial lives.