Originally Posted by
Aquaticus
Also my point. If we shrink to 50% we aren't going to be a legacie business model anymore. People are saying that we are going to shrink by 3900 pilots and then discounting how much that will change our product. Multiple people are bloviating about "this will be my third furlough" without understanding how a furlough that deep will basically bankrupt and reshape United. I honestly dont think they will furlough that deep because of how challenging changing their entire business model will be.
Aquaticus,
I hope the number is far less than 3,900, but United has operated below that size not too long ago. United can and has operated profitably at a much smaller size.
Please look at the 3 quotes directly from the ISL award statements and consider the results of United's last downsizing efforts.
CONTINENTAL AND UNITED AIR LINES PRE-MERGER SITUATION
United made a conscious business decision to shrink in order to make money, shrinking its fleet size dramatically from 2000 to October 1, 2010. United had approximately 610 aircraft in operation in 2000 and only 359 in 2010, a reduction of over 40%.
On October 1, 2010, United had 7,699 pilots, of which 6,254 (81%) were active and 1,445 (19%) were furloughed. Of the active pilots, 2,575 were captains and 3,679 were first officers.
[During this time] UAL recovered swiftly, however, and earned about a billion and a half dollars from 1Q2009 to 3Q2010.
I hope we are not on the same path once again, but the company has done this before.
SP