Originally Posted by
TransWorld
I am not an expert in investments, but my investments management firm (who has consistently beaten the markets averages for decades) and others I read are. The stock market, aside from day to day ups and downs, is forward looking. It says where investors think the economy will be 6 to 30 months from now.
This is not “oh, the markets went up today because the sun was shinning” and “oh, the markets went down because my wife frowned at me.” These are what the talking heads of the media and the news articles say. This is not the long term perspective on the markets.
The stock market has always been forward looking in the past, it is forward looking today, and always will be forward looking in the future.
The economy can be in the tank today, the markets are more optimistic for the economy as a whole 6 to 30 months out.
In the long term, stock market is a leading economic indicator. Sales is a coincidental economic indicator. Unemployment is a lagging economic indicator. You can “take this to the bank”.
Come on lets get real. This entire stock market rally is based on the liquid back stop the Feds have provided. If the Feds never bought the bonds and pumped a trillion+ to float this stock market, the crash would have continued from 18,300 down to about 7,000. THAT is where the stock market should be. If tonight the Feds announced they're ending all backstop, buying of bonds, pulling all support out of the market, the circuit breakers will be tripping in a heartbeat. The Feds even hinted that if buying bonds isn't enough they'll even start buying certain stocks if that's what it takes. It would be a zombie market, as Mohamad El-Erian said.