This is easily another lost decade. How is that even a question? IATA said 2024 for recovery. That's probably optimistic. You most likely won't see 2019 levels on the domestic side for 3-5 yrs and 5-7 yrs for the international side. The only thing those fancy pilot retirement charts will do is ease the airlines in to their plan of permanently shrink to a portion of what they were in 2019. How much, we don't know. If you're at the regionals, it's 2007-8 again where you'll be 7-8+ yr RJ FOs. If you're at a major, at least there are still lots of retirements so hopefully time on furlough won't be too long.


Covid19 presents an existential threat. No airline can survive with travel demand being at 25-30% like it is right now. Summer travel is about to come to close. After Labor day through week of Thanksgiving, that's almost 2.5 months of almost no leisure travel (everyone back in schools, jobs) and a majority being business travel. That's gone. The next 2 months are gonna be horrendous. OAG just published updated September and October schedules for all the airlines. BRUTAL!

https://www.airliners.net/forum/view...?f=3&t=1450555