Originally Posted by
DontLookDown
basically everyone on this board seems to agree there is a pattern of industry resets that occur approximately every 10 years.
The peaks and valleys of this industry have almost found a rhythm
The causes are not from the same source. Statistically you have described a coincidence, not a causality.
If fair dice are thrown 5 times in a row, and each time they come up snake eyes, what are the odds they are going to come up snake eyes the next time:
A. Greater than 1 in 36 chance
B. Exactly 1 in 36 chance
C. Less than 1 in 36 chance
(Each die has 6 sides, so the odds of it coming up 1 is 1 in 6. The second die is the same. So 1/6 x 1/6 = 1/36)
The answer is B. Exactly 1 in 36 chance. The dice has no memory.
You get suckered in to the other options because your emotions say it must be. Since it happened 5 times in a row, it is certain it will happen again, next time. Since it happened 5 times in a row, there is no way it will happen again, next time. Your emotions are wrong.
Will there be a black swan event in the future? Yes, of course. But it could be a year from now, or 20 years from now. Each year has an equally likelihood.