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Old 09-06-2020, 08:41 PM   #31  
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Depends. Certain events, training or a PCS move, can trigger an additional ADSC, but it simply doesn’t matter. The pilots they train don’t just disappear. And of those they train, an average of about a thousand a year will eventually wind up Airline pilots. It may be less than that in any given year (When hiring is poor) and more than that (When hiring is good), but ~1000 a year is the average. Maybe more now that the rotary guys are getting into the act.



It’s complicated. They also have limitations on rank too, and some things - like flying fighters - is largely a young person’s game.



Eventually, yeah. But right now there are fewer jobs, many of the people that would have retired over the next three years have already been retired, as have a lot of aircraft. And a huge surplus of people already with 121 experience are standing between those people who do not yet have 121 experience and those regional jobs.



It will still fill seats for those majors that can make money flying those pax. But they can’t fly these people at a loss. Different airlines have different business models. Some are highly dependent on business and international flying. Some are not. Furloughs routinely drive up average cost per seat mile because you are furloughing the lowest paid pilots and retaining the highest paid pilots. For multi type rating fleets, the training churn can become very significant.




perhaps. But for the last 20 years we have sort of created a culture of snowflakes. That’s why we got the ‘mission creep’ from ‘flatten the curve to keep ICUs from getting overloaded’ to ‘keep it locked down until a vaccine fixes things.’

Right or wrong, an expectation has been created. That it is an UNREALISTIC expectation hardly matters. The quickest vaccine
ever produced was the one for Ebola, and that took 4 years. And that is to produce a vaccine. Actually getting enough people immunized that it will make a difference will take longer. But that doesn’t matter, because about two-thirds of the population won’t want to open up the economy until everybody has the vaccine and the other third will be refusing to take the vaccine at all.
When I was reading this I said “Is this excargodog talking?” I scrolled back up and lo and behold. You’re the most negative optimist I’ve ever seen. Or maybe the most optimistic negative person. Either way, I mostly agree with you.

To be on topic, I side gig at a school in eastern NC. Never shut down. Masks are pretty optional. Not much decrease in business. I think the school will grow slower than it has now that people are spooked, but anybody who was already in isn’t folding their hand.
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Old 09-06-2020, 09:39 PM   #32  
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When I was reading this I said “Is this excargodog talking?” I scrolled back up and lo and behold. You’re the most negative optimist I’ve ever seen. Or maybe the most optimistic negative person. Either way, I mostly agree with you.
LONGTERM, I’m VERY optimistic. But short term, a number of regionals have gone or soon will go Tango Uniform, Same-same for some 135 and charter companies, the next few years of retirements have already been used up by the Big Three and they are going to downsize. And if one of them goes Chapter 11, the other two will almost have to to stay competitive. In the meantime we are looking at a lot of furloughs and displacements.

So yeah, times are going to be tough for a few years.
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Old 09-07-2020, 07:14 PM   #33  
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Is the military requiring longer commitments from the guys that all of a sudden want to stay?
Typically, no. Most guys either bail at the completion of their service commitment (wings plus 8 for Navy) or ride the train to the end of the tracks (20+). It’s relatively rare for something to jump ship in the middle, save for maybe an SFTI who really wants to get out.

Short of being passed over for promotion twice, you can stick around for another set of orders and then bounce, if you’d like. Most people take the DH bonus (175k for 5 years) when they stick around, but I believe you get to keep a pro-rated share if you decide to bail early—IOW, you aren’t locked in like the initial service commitment.

Many of my buddies are simply not resigning, or are rescinding their resignation letters...and taking a set of follow-on orders...

...although the cynic in me is imagining the look of sheer delight on the faces of the guys at PERS as they distribute belt-fed tubesteak via message traffic...

But hey, at least IAs aren’t really a thing anymore.
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Old 09-09-2020, 05:18 PM   #34  
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Default Enough students to get to 1500?

Hi All,

Before Covid, does anyone have a gauge on how long it actually took to get to 1500 as a CFI? I know the training centers will quote 18 mo, but is that realistic?

Reason I ask, (seems to me) that each student would need to train 4 students to get the additional ~ 1200 hours needed to get to ATP. Is the pipe expanding that much? Or does this model require a lot of students going to low hour time building like pipeline monitoring and skydiving?

It just seems like the path to 1500 as a CFI requires a lot of luck and sales. I could see there being a lot of variance in the 18 months quoted by those big pilot factories.

Any thoughts appreciated
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Old 09-09-2020, 05:23 PM   #35  
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Hi All,

Before Covid, does anyone have a gauge on how long it actually took to get to 1500 as a CFI? I know the training centers will quote 18 mo, but is that realistic?

Reason I ask, (seems to me) that each student would need to train 4 students to get the additional ~ 1200 hours needed to get to ATP. Is the pipe expanding that much? Or does this model require a lot of students going to low hour time building like pipeline monitoring and skydiving?

It just seems like the path to 1500 as a CFI requires a lot of luck and sales. I could see there being a lot of variance in the 18 months quoted by those big pilot factories.

Any thoughts appreciated
Can’t comment on the pilot mills, but spoke to a CFI working at a small 61/141 outfit and he was flying in excess of 100hrs/month...but the dude worked.

Pre-covid, obvi.
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Old 09-09-2020, 07:22 PM   #36  
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Hi All,



Before Covid, does anyone have a gauge on how long it actually took to get to 1500 as a CFI? I know the training centers will quote 18 mo, but is that realistic?



Reason I ask, (seems to me) that each student would need to train 4 students to get the additional ~ 1200 hours needed to get to ATP. Is the pipe expanding that much? Or does this model require a lot of students going to low hour time building like pipeline monitoring and skydiving?



It just seems like the path to 1500 as a CFI requires a lot of luck and sales. I could see there being a lot of variance in the 18 months quoted by those big pilot factories.



Any thoughts appreciated
At a busy flight school with good weather, it's possible to get to your atp mins in under 18 months. I've done it but it's a lot of work, I flew more than 100h a month.

Sent from my BND-L34 using Tapatalk
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Old 09-10-2020, 06:45 AM   #37  
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Hi All,

Before Covid, does anyone have a gauge on how long it actually took to get to 1500 as a CFI? I know the training centers will quote 18 mo, but is that realistic?

Reason I ask, (seems to me) that each student would need to train 4 students to get the additional ~ 1200 hours needed to get to ATP. Is the pipe expanding that much? Or does this model require a lot of students going to low hour time building like pipeline monitoring and skydiving?

It just seems like the path to 1500 as a CFI requires a lot of luck and sales. I could see there being a lot of variance in the 18 months quoted by those big pilot factories.

Any thoughts appreciated

Very unlikely. Figure on average 75hr a month at a good gig. Wx, Mx, student cancellations etc. will happen
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Old 09-10-2020, 08:20 AM   #38  
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Very unlikely. Figure on average 75hr a month at a good gig. Wx, Mx, student cancellations etc. will happen
Thanks for the notes. So, sounds like at a typical 61/141 shop, the number of non-commercial students can sustain a budding commercial (ATP) pilot.

It would be interesting to understand if the "Pilot Mills" can support that level, since my understanding is that they specialize in commercial pilots and dont really train PPLs off the street.

The follow up to that is how many graduates of large flight training academies take them up on their offer to be a CFI, and how many look elsewhere for more time.

Thanks for all of the replies!
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Old 09-10-2020, 12:38 PM   #39  
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Thanks for the notes. So, sounds like at a typical 61/141 shop, the number of non-commercial students can sustain a budding commercial (ATP) pilot.

It would be interesting to understand if the "Pilot Mills" can support that level, since my understanding is that they specialize in commercial pilots and dont really train PPLs off the street.

The follow up to that is how many graduates of large flight training academies take them up on their offer to be a CFI, and how many look elsewhere for more time.

Thanks for all of the replies!
The bulk of dual flight training, i.e. student and instructor, is going to happen during Private & instrument training. The Commercial pilots usually build their hours solo and get the dual when needed for maneuvers/landings. Thats just my experience though.
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