Originally Posted by Excargodog

Depends. Certain events, training or a PCS move, can trigger an additional ADSC, but it simply doesn’t matter. The pilots they train don’t just disappear. And of those they train, an average of about a thousand a year will eventually wind up Airline pilots. It may be less than that in any given year (When hiring is poor) and more than that (When hiring is good), but ~1000 a year is the average. Maybe more now that the rotary guys are getting into the act.



It’s complicated. They also have limitations on rank too, and some things - like flying fighters - is largely a young person’s game.



Eventually, yeah. But right now there are fewer jobs, many of the people that would have retired over the next three years have already been retired, as have a lot of aircraft. And a huge surplus of people already with 121 experience are standing between those people who do not yet have 121 experience and those regional jobs.



It will still fill seats for those majors that can make money flying those pax. But they can’t fly these people at a loss. Different airlines have different business models. Some are highly dependent on business and international flying. Some are not. Furloughs routinely drive up average cost per seat mile because you are furloughing the lowest paid pilots and retaining the highest paid pilots. For multi type rating fleets, the training churn can become very significant.




perhaps. But for the last 20 years we have sort of created a culture of snowflakes. That’s why we got the ‘mission creep’ from ‘flatten the curve to keep ICUs from getting overloaded’ to ‘keep it locked down until a vaccine fixes things.’

Right or wrong, an expectation has been created. That it is an UNREALISTIC expectation hardly matters. The quickest vaccine
ever produced was the one for Ebola, and that took 4 years. And that is to produce a vaccine. Actually getting enough people immunized that it will make a difference will take longer. But that doesn’t matter, because about two-thirds of the population won’t want to open up the economy until everybody has the vaccine and the other third will be refusing to take the vaccine at all.

Originally Posted by flyinthrew

When I was reading this I said “Is this excargodog talking?” I scrolled back up and lo and behold. You’re the most negative optimist I’ve ever seen. Or maybe the most optimistic negative person. Either way, I mostly agree with you.

Originally Posted by VegasChris

Is the military requiring longer commitments from the guys that all of a sudden want to stay?

Originally Posted by HollywoodPilot

Hi All,

Before Covid, does anyone have a gauge on how long it actually took to get to 1500 as a CFI? I know the training centers will quote 18 mo, but is that realistic?

Reason I ask, (seems to me) that each student would need to train 4 students to get the additional ~ 1200 hours needed to get to ATP. Is the pipe expanding that much? Or does this model require a lot of students going to low hour time building like pipeline monitoring and skydiving?

It just seems like the path to 1500 as a CFI requires a lot of luck and sales. I could see there being a lot of variance in the 18 months quoted by those big pilot factories.

Any thoughts appreciated

Originally Posted by HollywoodPilot

Hi All,



Before Covid, does anyone have a gauge on how long it actually took to get to 1500 as a CFI? I know the training centers will quote 18 mo, but is that realistic?



Reason I ask, (seems to me) that each student would need to train 4 students to get the additional ~ 1200 hours needed to get to ATP. Is the pipe expanding that much? Or does this model require a lot of students going to low hour time building like pipeline monitoring and skydiving?



It just seems like the path to 1500 as a CFI requires a lot of luck and sales. I could see there being a lot of variance in the 18 months quoted by those big pilot factories.



Any thoughts appreciated

Originally Posted by HollywoodPilot

Hi All,

Before Covid, does anyone have a gauge on how long it actually took to get to 1500 as a CFI? I know the training centers will quote 18 mo, but is that realistic?

Reason I ask, (seems to me) that each student would need to train 4 students to get the additional ~ 1200 hours needed to get to ATP. Is the pipe expanding that much? Or does this model require a lot of students going to low hour time building like pipeline monitoring and skydiving?

It just seems like the path to 1500 as a CFI requires a lot of luck and sales. I could see there being a lot of variance in the 18 months quoted by those big pilot factories.

Any thoughts appreciated

Originally Posted by stevecv

Very unlikely. Figure on average 75hr a month at a good gig. Wx, Mx, student cancellations etc. will happen

Originally Posted by HollywoodPilot

Thanks for the notes. So, sounds like at a typical 61/141 shop, the number of non-commercial students can sustain a budding commercial (ATP) pilot.

It would be interesting to understand if the "Pilot Mills" can support that level, since my understanding is that they specialize in commercial pilots and dont really train PPLs off the street.

The follow up to that is how many graduates of large flight training academies take them up on their offer to be a CFI, and how many look elsewhere for more time.

Thanks for all of the replies!