Originally Posted by
VegasChris
Is the military requiring longer commitments from the guys that all of a sudden want to stay?
Depends. Certain events, training or a PCS move, can trigger an additional ADSC, but it simply doesn’t matter. The pilots they train don’t just disappear. And of those they train, an average of about a thousand a year will eventually wind up Airline pilots. It may be less than that in any given year (When hiring is poor) and more than that (When hiring is good), but ~1000 a year is the average. Maybe more now that the rotary guys are getting into the act.
I know companies like ameriflight are requiring a training contract so guys can't leave. I would think the military is trying to keep as many of their pilots as long as possible.
It’s complicated. They also have limitations on rank too, and some things - like flying fighters - is largely a young person’s game.
No one knows what the recovery will look like. Hiring again at minimums based on pent up demand is a possibility.
Eventually, yeah. But right now there are fewer jobs, many of the people that would have retired over the next three years have already been retired, as have a lot of aircraft. And a huge surplus of people already with 121 experience are standing between those people who do not yet have 121 experience and those regional jobs.
People will want liesure travel. It may not be as profitable as last minute business travel- but it will still fill seats. When people stop caring about the virus (I stopped caring 6 months ago) things are going to come back.
It will still fill seats for those majors that can make money flying those pax. But they can’t fly these people at a loss. Different airlines have different business models. Some are highly dependent on business and international flying. Some are not. Furloughs routinely drive up average cost per seat mile because you are furloughing the lowest paid pilots and retaining the highest paid pilots. For multi type rating fleets, the training churn can become very significant.
Hopefully the election(no matter who wins) will kill the politicization of this and we can move on.
perhaps. But for the last 20 years we have sort of created a culture of snowflakes. That’s why we got the ‘mission creep’ from ‘flatten the curve to keep ICUs from getting overloaded’ to ‘keep it locked down until a vaccine fixes things.’
Right or wrong, an expectation has been created. That it is an UNREALISTIC expectation hardly matters. The quickest vaccine
ever produced was the one for Ebola, and that took 4 years. And that is to produce a vaccine. Actually getting enough people immunized that it will make a difference will take longer. But that doesn’t matter, because about two-thirds of the population won’t want to open up the economy until everybody has the vaccine and the other third will be refusing to take the vaccine at all.