Originally Posted by Big5

What are the probabilities of any of these triggers actually “hit” thus terminating the agreement?

1. Company puts seats back into any 76-seat aircraft - not likely

2. Pilot hired prior to August 20, 2016 is involuntarily furloughed - IV absolutely, but to 2007. Then the company will survive on available credit and our concessions to bridge the gap for the following 1 1/2 years

3. Company earns any profit for two consecutive quarters - not a chance

4. Passenger revenue reaches 80% of 2019 level for a single quarter - 80% load factor maybe, but revenue, not likely

5. Passenger revenue reaches 70% of 2019 level for three consecutive quarters - not gonna happen

6. Cash balance drops below $2B - analysts have reported that our $17B in cash is enough to keep us in business well beyond a year from now

7. Company files for bankruptcy - see number 6

8. Company notifies ALPA that it has no intent to utilize reduced work provision - not a chance

9. October 2022 Bid Period ends - MOST PROBABLE OUTCOME

I Recognize we’re gambling when HOPING for a certain trigger to end our misery under this TA. With odds like this TA (where the house has about a 90% edge) who in their right mind walks into a casino and lays a $100 bet that’ll pay 90% of your original bet? Or in the case of the junior group, we’ll lay the same bet with only a 53% payout.

I’ll pass on these odds.