I predict that if this does not pass, the company will furlough 2007 pilots in Nov-Dec. That number is not random. At most, they can furlough 2850 (theoretically) before January without more WARN letters, and even then the training backlog prevents the “pounce” strategy we’ve heard so much about. By then we’ll know about CARES 2 and the election. If there’s no significant recovery, all 2850 are gone with the TA in June and the company saved millions on payroll in the interim.

We are placing much more importance on this TA than the company is. They are not going to pin all their hopes and dreams on a bunch of pilots voting on an agreement, and they will not implement “scorched earth” in retribution. They are trying to get us to pay their bill first, and if that doesn’t work, they’ll adjust the numbers and keep as many extra pilots on the payroll as necessary to “pounce”.

An uncertain future is scary. I’m not particularly excited about the furlough notice on my nightstand. But I have been spending way more time fixing my resume and log books, pinging old contacts, and getting my financials in order than posting on here, and I suggest all the bottom 1/3 do the same instead of hoping to change somebody’s mind.