So how the recovery works, at least according to my crystal ball...
Summer 2021, already baked in, airlines still carry more pilots than needed due to furlough mitigation
Summer 2022 or later, as airlines add frequency to meet demand, furlough mitigation agreements are canceled, and leaves of absence are recalled/denied
Summer 2023 or later, back to full employment of pilots on property, staffing shortages managed by open time/green slip etc.
Summer of 2024 or later, limited hiring begins