You're over thinking it. Let's say they decide to reduce the headcount by 1500. They furlough the bottom 1200 (including those currently on EXTO). Meanwhile, 300 more senior EXTO pilots remain on EXTO. Calling them back would defeat the purpose of the program which is to mitigate furloughs to the extent possible.

If the lousy 1/2 guarantee they pay the folk who are still on EXTO after a furlough is really breaking the bank, they add another 75-150 furloughs to make up the cost difference.

My bet is they determine how many people they need to be rid of, and they achieve that number by way of furloughs and remaining EXTOs who are senior enough to be safe. Cost of those few remaining EXTOs will be baked into the number of furloughs, or absorbed as a cost of doing business at the right-sized headcount, just like VSP payments are baked in for the next 5 years.


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