Originally Posted by
THKooj
You're twisting the facts. Nobody and I mean NOBODY could have predicted this pandemic that has affected every. single. carrier. The flow is on pause until traffic returns which should be in the 1st to 2nd quarter timeframe with the rollout of the vaccine. Once that first pilot flows, then a brand new hire would be able to calculate his or her 5.5 year flow from that date. Anyone there before would subtract the time at Envoy until Covid and then restart the clock once hiring begins to also get the 5.5 year flow. I'm telling you AA is innovative. So, tell me why United and Delta don't have flows?
Seriously? Who are you trying to kid? Let’s assume that AA actually makes it without bankruptcy, despite a huge corporate debt and their last bond sale requiring a 12% yield to get takers. IF the second PSP comes through, that MIGHT happen. But as their existing bonds come due they are going to have to refinance that debt, refinance at 10-12% debt that was originally at 2.5-3%, and with the used aircraft market for airliners tanking worldwide the aircraft used as equity are now much reduced in value, which will insure those rates will be higher. In the meantime, the AA fleet has been cut back by a lot of aircraft. The entire (20) E-190 fleet, the entire 767 and 757 fleet, and all 24 of the A330s. That causes a huge reduction in their need for pilots. So IF they survive, AFTER they’ve gotten enough new aircraft to bring in all the pilots they already have on furlough, IF business picks up and IF they can manage to service their debt load, THEN AND ONLY THEN can they actually buy the aircraft they have on order that they have now deferred, and then and only then will flow recommence, allowing the pilots of the three wholly owneds to compete for slots against OTS hires and about 2000 retiring and separating military pilots.
Rickair7777 is right. The flow isn’t QUITE a scam, but it’s sort of a desperate last chance to back into a major by people with no chance of getting in any other way.