Originally Posted by TransWorld

I love it how some here say it happens every 8 to 10 years. From 2001 to 2008 is 7 years. From 2008 to 2020 is 12 years. Let’s see, 2001 minus 10 years is 1991. Don’t recall, what happened then? 1991 minus 10 years would be 1981. What happened then? Refresh my memory.

2001 was the twin towers being destroyed, many people did not fly. 2008 was the mortgage bubble (lying about income to get mortgages with no proof of income) and Mark to market causing a recession. Also the flying mandatory retirement went up from 60 to 65. The major airlines had a major consolidation that contributed to the lost decade. Don’t see those two things happening again. 2020 was the worst plague in a century, except for the Asian flu in 1958 and the Hong Kong flu in 1968. I forget, did we have across the board pilot furloughs in those years?

Of course there will be black swan events in the future, but I reject the idea they occur every 8 to 10 years, as though they are related.