Originally Posted by
Firefighterpilo
I am confused on your argument. Are you trying to say that historically the airline industry is actually stable and this event is a one off? Or that black swan events don’t happen exactly every ten years. If it’s the latter I would agree they don’t seem to happen exactly every 120 months, but for sake of hyperbole it’s easier to say every ten years.
You are correct when I meant a black swan event does not magically happen on or about every ten years.
Suppose someone claims a recession in the economy will be exactly next year, “just because we are about due for one.” Will a recession take place sometime in the future? Yes. Will it happen at exactly the average number of years? No. There is a wide variability of when it will happen and a wide variability as to the severity.
The airline industry is stable? Not in the least. I saw someone do an analysis of profitability of all the airlines a few years ago, and found the average profits per year, for the entire industry was zero.
I will say with the big four passenger carrier and big two cargo carriers, the likelihood of further big buy outs and mergers like we had over a number of decades is fairly low. Hard to see one of the big four getting regulatory approves to buy out one of the other three. (Buyouts of smaller ones is still possible.) From that standpoint, the landscape has changed.