Well, discounting those who are hired at AA or other places BEFORE their flow dates, and those that become old enough before their flow dates that it really doesn’t make sense to go to any major and give up the seniority and longevity for a few years of FO flying on reserve in the junior base at not much more than top end regional wages - and that does happen.

All those things would shorten flow time from a strict mathematical model. But almost all of those variables depend upon someone else - actually LOTS of someone else’s - putting in the effort to make themselves competitive through college degrees and networking and actively updating apps and making the effort to meet the recruiters of airlines actively hiring. It’s not mathematically predictable except to bound the extremes.