I read the reports in the original post with interest.

I will say that the situation here in Germany is much worse now than it was during spring last year, which is the time frame the study looked at. At the time we seemed to be doing much better than many european countries. Now not so much. We are not the worst hit but also not the least affected. Not sure if what they found out from the first wave translates directly to the second or third one.

It also says the following in the first link in the original post:

"The efficacy of lockdown orders has been a hotly debated topic since the start of the pandemic.

Though this study's approach did not determine any significant benefits to implementing mandatory lockdowns, others have shown that lockdowns have saved millions of lives.

A study published by researchers at Imperial College London in June found that some 3.1 million deaths had been averted due to lockdowns across Europe early on in the pandemic, Reuters reported. Additional research found that 530 million coronavirus infections had been avoided due to early lockdowns in China, South Korea, Italy, Iran, France and the United States, according to the news outlet."

So I guess it's fair that say that the science is far from settled on lockdowns.

Personally I think these continued half-assed lockdowns are the worst of both worlds. They cause significant pain and suffering and perhsps not enough benefit. I think a very strict two week lockdown including stopping all non essential work outside people's homes, would really have an effect and buy some time until enough people are vaccinated to make sure those most at risk will be safe and won't overburden the health system. I don't see this happening in the US though. I kind of hope we go that way in Germany. Everyone stays home for two weeks as if everyone had the virus. That should drop numbers dramatically and buy us a few more weeks which might be all we need. We could then lift most restrictions.