Originally Posted by LumberJack

I appreciate the effort but there are flaws in your logic. First, the gaps you're referring to are short lived (early 2019 and early 2020). Second, the gaps are no where near the same size as the excess for Q2-Q4 2020. Add up the mild flu season for 2019 and early 2020, and you're not even close to the total excess for the rest of 2020.

Third, you're "departure from the average" statement is flawed because 2017 and 2018 had excess deaths. Why doesn't your logic apply in reverse? I would expect a reversion to the mean following those years, which is what we saw in 2019.

Lastly, the flu season was shaping up to be normal for 2020. If we had an excess amount of at-risk people from 2019, why weren't they showing up in the data for January and February 2020?