Originally Posted by
sanicom3205
I'm suggesting that the current situation is really bad for everyone. American's spreadsheet is the worst, no doubt about it. But if things get so bad that AA folds and is sold off, do you realize what shape the other legacies will be in??
There is a lot at stake for many very large and powerful stakeholders here. AA tanking does a hell of a lot more than take out the 135,000 jobs, it's hundreds of aircraft orders that prop up an already-ailing US manufacturing giant you may have heard of - not to mention the stake airbus has in AAs survival.
Anyway, all this to say that it's clear management (read: Doug and his 2.3 million AA shares) isn't aiming for a strategic bankruptcy. That said, they'll be forced to do it if they hit the magic liquidity number (prob ~$8 billion).
I really believe that everything depends on this summer. If demand sucks and we don't stop the bleeding for a few months, they'll more than likely file chapter 11. Deal with the debt, come for our throats, etc etc. If the summer isn't half bad, vaccination programs get off the ground and things start opening up, things are going to be just fine. It's not about offending me as you say, it's just too early to tell if we'll go into chapter 11, and you're arguing for chapter 7. It's kind of nonsense
Lol that is great, hadn't seen that before.
I agree. This summer is critically important to the entire industry, Legacies, most of all. After 9/11, the same thing happened where everyone was expecting USAir to fail and be parted out, then Delta Pilots were down bidding to the 737 during our BK, thinking if we got parted out, the 737 fleet would be sold with the pilots, Pan Am style. When the dust settled, 5-6 years later, we were all making a lot less, but no airline went CH 7, or got parted out. And remember there was much less Government aid last time too, and the economy was entering recession status.
If we, as an industry, can get a good strong, summer under our belt, and the economy isn’t too damaged by the end of summer, most will be vaccinated and unafraid to fly again. The fall may be slow as people put their lives back together again but by holiday time 2021, I think demand will be back to better than break even and will continue to improve from there.
My opinion only.