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View Poll Results: Will AA declare bankruptcy?
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Bankruptcy

Old 01-05-2021, 10:43 PM
  #1  
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After flying with numerous pilots, a common trend of thought is that AA will declare bankruptcy. Another bankruptcy contract will continue to hurt qol for pilots as well as cripple other airlines.

what are your thoughts on probability of bankruptcy?
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Old 01-06-2021, 06:01 AM
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Originally Posted by Gooselives View Post
After flying with numerous pilots, a common trend of thought is that AA will declare bankruptcy. Another bankruptcy contract will continue to hurt qol for pilots as well as cripple other airlines.

what are your thoughts on probability of bankruptcy?
Dumb thread.

The company, and more importantly the union's E&FA committee has repeatedly stated that BK is not an imminent threat. By all means though lets listen to some guy who took Econ 101 35 years ago and thinks he knows what he's talking because he made money off Starbucks stock and reads Motley Fool once a month.

If we don't get some kind of demand return by end of summer/fall we are probably screwed, but so is everyone else.
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Old 01-06-2021, 07:06 AM
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Originally Posted by NorthwestAA View Post
You guys do understand that when all the debt and liabilities are added up only $2 billion separates Delta and American. The difference being Delta has about $5 billion more in cash and a lower daily cash burn. That’s strongest to weakest airline. They will outlast us, but we’re all, every airline, really f*%}ed right now. Delta like American ****ed away billions in stock buybacks. United has considerably less debt, but a significant chunk starts coming due about 2 years prior to American’s. At least if American survives this we’ll have a new fleet to show for some of the debt. Delta and United still have to replace the majority of their fleets. You guys crack me up. It’s like standing on a flood plain about to fill up with 20’ deep of water and the 6’3” guy laughing at the guy 6’0”.
Your captains probably don’t even consider the Miata to be a sports car. Can’t trust someone with that kinda judgement.

zeeeeeeeeeerooooo point in this conversation.
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Old 01-06-2021, 10:12 AM
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Wish the Yes was split into Chapter 11 or Chapter 7.

Or two separate polls, “Will...Chapter 11?” And “Will...Chapter 7.”
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Old 01-06-2021, 04:17 PM
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I think there is a good chance of CH11 ... with others to possibly follow not far behind.

If things drag out or if other unforeseen issues pop up ... ???
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Old 01-06-2021, 04:50 PM
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Originally Posted by Huell View Post
I think there is a good chance of CH11 ... with others to possibly follow not far behind.

If things drag out or if other unforeseen issues pop up ... ???
You have to convince a judge to file Chapter 11. with the amount of debt over 42 BILLION, and daily cash burn over 10 million, they have zero shot filing CH11, zero. If we can get a quick recovery it would be smart to file chapter 11 in American Airlines case, but I don’t see a quick recovery. With the democrats running the show for the next 2-4 years, spending will increase, inflation will increase, we’ll take our time with opening the country.

Also experts are projecting the price of oil to increase from $50 to $100 a barrel. Saudi Arabia announced cutback in oil production. The last time that happened was during the Bush administration because SA felt threatened. Now they’re feeling threatened by the Biden administration so they’re playing games again.

Last edited by Finessed; 01-06-2021 at 05:14 PM.
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Old 01-06-2021, 06:15 PM
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Originally Posted by Finessed View Post
You have to convince a judge to file Chapter 11. with the amount of debt over 42 BILLION, and daily cash burn over 10 million, they have zero shot filing CH11, zero. If we can get a quick recovery it would be smart to file chapter 11 in American Airlines case, but I don’t see a quick recovery. With the democrats running the show for the next 2-4 years, spending will increase, inflation will increase, we’ll take our time with opening the country.

Also experts are projecting the price of oil to increase from $50 to $100 a barrel. Saudi Arabia announced cutback in oil production. The last time that happened was during the Bush administration because SA felt threatened. Now they’re feeling threatened by the Biden administration so they’re playing games again.
Anyone desiring to reorganize their business can file Chap 11 as long as they can pony up the $1039 or so necessary to file and the quarterly cost of a US Trustee.

Legally, anyone except a governmental agency, an estate, a nonbusiness trust, a stockbroker, a commodity broker, an insurance company, a bank, or an SBA-licensed small business investment company may file under Chapter 11. An individual may not file under Chapter 11 if he or she has had another bankruptcy case dismissed upon certain grounds within the last 180 days. As a practical matter, Chapter 11 is available to virtually any business or person able to afford the expenses of the case.

If the judge doesn’t like the reorganization plan or the creditors have valid complaints, he/she may not grant the filer relief from their debts, and may even reject the reorganization plan and appoint a trustee to manage the bankruptcy but the judge has no mechanism to simply refuse a filed petition as long as the person isn’t in one of the above prohibited categories.

Upon filing a voluntary petition for relief under chapter 11 or, in an involuntary case, the entry of an order for relief, the debtor automatically assumes an additional identity as the "debtor in possession." 11 U.S.C. § 1101. The term refers to a debtor that keeps possession and control of its assets while undergoing a reorganization under chapter 11, without the appointment of a case trustee. A debtor will remain a debtor in possession until the debtor's plan of reorganization is confirmed, the debtor's case is dismissed or converted to chapter 7, or a chapter 11 trustee is appointed.

https://www.uscourts.gov/services-fo...kruptcy-basics
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Old 01-06-2021, 08:05 PM
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Originally Posted by Excargodog View Post
Anyone desiring to reorganize their business can file Chap 11 as long as they can pony up the $1039 or so necessary to file and the quarterly cost of a US Trustee.

Legally, anyone except a governmental agency, an estate, a nonbusiness trust, a stockbroker, a commodity broker, an insurance company, a bank, or an SBA-licensed small business investment company may file under Chapter 11. An individual may not file under Chapter 11 if he or she has had another bankruptcy case dismissed upon certain grounds within the last 180 days. As a practical matter, Chapter 11 is available to virtually any business or person able to afford the expenses of the case.

If the judge doesn’t like the reorganization plan or the creditors have valid complaints, he/she may not grant the filer relief from their debts, and may even reject the reorganization plan and appoint a trustee to manage the bankruptcy but the judge has no mechanism to simply refuse a filed petition as long as the person isn’t in one of the above prohibited categories.

Upon filing a voluntary petition for relief under chapter 11 or, in an involuntary case, the entry of an order for relief, the debtor automatically assumes an additional identity as the "debtor in possession." 11 U.S.C. § 1101. The term refers to a debtor that keeps possession and control of its assets while undergoing a reorganization under chapter 11, without the appointment of a case trustee. A debtor will remain a debtor in possession until the debtor's plan of reorganization is confirmed, the debtor's case is dismissed or converted to chapter 7, or a chapter 11 trustee is appointed.

https://www.uscourts.gov/services-fo...kruptcy-basics
I stand corrected let me rephrase.

You file THEN A judge approves the reorganization plan. The judge STILL HAS TO APPROVE your plan. I believe that only 10% of filings that are brought to a judge and requesting approval for chapter 11 are accepted.

Just because I file a lawsuit towards someone, does not necessarily result I’ll win the the case after being presented.

If you bring your plan of reorganization for your business to a judge with 42 billion in debt, and 10 million cash burn per day, GOOD LUCK having that approved.

The result of not receiving chapter 11 approval by a judge, would result in the dreaded chapter 7.
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Old 01-06-2021, 09:35 PM
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Originally Posted by Finessed View Post
I stand corrected let me rephrase.

You file THEN A judge approves the reorganization plan. The judge STILL HAS TO APPROVE your plan. I believe that only 10% of filings that are brought to a judge and requesting approval for chapter 11 are accepted.

Just because I file a lawsuit towards someone, does not necessarily result I’ll win the the case after being presented.

If you bring your plan of reorganization for your business to a judge with 42 billion in debt, and 10 million cash burn per day, GOOD LUCK having that approved.

The result of not receiving chapter 11 approval by a judge, would result in the dreaded chapter 7.
Wrong. Only 5% of Chap 11 bankruptcies are ever converted to Chapter 7, most often by the debtor themself if he/she thinks there will be more residual capital coming to them through liquidation than through reorganization. Judges approve pretty much any viable reorganization that appears that it will not take money away from secured creditors.
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Old 01-06-2021, 10:18 PM
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Originally Posted by Gooselives View Post
After flying with numerous pilots, a common trend of thought is that AA will declare bankruptcy. Another bankruptcy contract will continue to hurt qol for pilots as well as cripple other airlines.

what are your thoughts on probability of bankruptcy?
Lol! All this tells me is that 75% of the pilots on this thread are morons. Not surprising given the average pilot IQ.
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