Margaritaville

I'm sure Delta is great and all but they seem to put up with a lot of crap too. Some of their internal policies are whack from what I hear. And you'll have to fly with Delta Captains. Also reading their page DALPA doesn't seem much less dysfunctional than APA. They also have some short time upgrades but that seems like a once off. Junior in NYC for 10 years is no way to spend your life.

With the movement at AA someone hired now can likely hold NB CA in most bases within 3 years. You're not going to see that at DL. Maybe UA but honestly I think UA is on shakier financial ground than AA right now.

If you don't really want to work somewhere why would you go to the interview? To keep your options open? Maybe. But that's a lot of trouble to go through and you're still going to have an even bigger decision to make if you get the job.

FenderGL

Thanks all for the quick inputs, seems to line up with what I was thinking. My only concern I guess would be: if AA did have to hypothetically file BC in the next 12-24 months, what kind of impact would that have on me as a relative new hire?

Al Czervik

I think that would be the beauty of an AA BK. They couldn’t touch the pilot contract. They’d lose all hope of ever recruiting with that.

Excargodog

Except without the butter.

Same as would happen to the junior people at any other airline that went through Chapter 11. AA’s high rate of upcoming retirements might well mitigate how long you were toast though. But for any airline that does go through bankruptcy, the pilot group is going to be a decade clawing back their losses. Look at how long it’s been with the DL and UA pension give-ups.

Margaritaville

Do you believe AA will go the way of TWA, Eastern, etc? Very unlikely in this day and age. Major impact to the US economy.

More likely case is Ch 11. Contracts get restructured (not just labor contracts) and debt get wiped out. New corporate umbrella and new livery. The need for pilots and the number of retirements isn't going to change so mass layoffs unlikely in that scenario. Maybe a few more years under a crappy contract dating to the last bk.

Dark horse is if AA gets broken up in a bk. That could happen if .gov gets involved in a bailout especially if dems in office. That could affect pilot lives. Fragmentation language may offer protection, pilots go with the airplanes but is that really desirable? And what happens to the pieces? bought by other legacies making their economic footprint even bigger? Sold to SWA or a ULCC? New airline? This scenario has a lot of questions which makes it unlikely.

No most likely you just keep doing what you're doing and put up with a crap contract for another cycle.

chrisreedrules

Most likely AA will go to bankruptcy in my opinion. Probably won’t be much more than an inconvenience to labor. As has been stated above I’m not sure how much the APA contract can really be touched and still be able to remain competitive. I imagine it will look more like RAH’s recent bankruptcy. Shed some airframes potentially. Maybe tighten up the operation. Maybe shed a base or 2… But the pilots will likely be left alone.

tommy2times

https://liveandletsfly.com/american-airlines-stock-bankruptcy/

nAAtive

[QUOTE=tommy2times;3466207]https://liveandletsfly.com/american-airlines-stock-bankruptcy/[/QUOTE]
$75 billion in debt.

tommy2times

$75 billion in debt.[/QUOTE]

Would it be inconsiderate to wear my "it's time" lanyard?

Sike

Does anyone actually understand the terms and rates of airline financing? How often do they have to refinance their debt? In times of record inflation, debt is good to have, if done properly. My 2.75% mortgage looks like free money right now.

AA will lose 5000 high cost pilots in the next several years. Fuel prices will go down. Business travel will return and so will international.

On paper, it's not a pretty picture. However, I'm not terribly worried... yet.