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Old 02-10-2022 | 08:14 AM
  #901  
Excargodog's Avatar
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Originally Posted by Andy
I'm sure American can find additional credit if needed, but it looks like Covid restrictions are getting lifted in most of the world so it should be a very profitable summer.
Additional credit is always available - until it isn’t. But COST of borrowing that money generally goes up with the rate of inflation, which right now is sort of starting to skyrocket:



Especially for bonds rated junk.
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Old 02-10-2022 | 08:48 AM
  #902  
In a land of unicorns
 
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From: Whale FO
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Originally Posted by Excargodog
Additional credit is always available - until it isn’t. But COST of borrowing that money generally goes up with the rate of inflation, which right now is sort of starting to skyrocket:

Especially for bonds rated junk.
AAGs issue is also that additional credit requires them to hold more cash. They used to need around 7 billion in cash (this was early 2020), they have since borrowed 15 billion more so they must be close to 10 billion required. There will be a tipping point, obviously no-one knows where that will be.
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Old 02-10-2022 | 11:10 AM
  #903  
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Originally Posted by dera
AAGs issue is also that additional credit requires them to hold more cash. They used to need around 7 billion in cash (this was early 2020), they have since borrowed 15 billion more so they must be close to 10 billion required. There will be a tipping point, obviously no-one knows where that will be.

It’s gonna happen any minute.
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Old 02-10-2022 | 11:51 AM
  #904  
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Originally Posted by Skycap876
The regionals will always have a necessary place in the industry. There are select markets where it is economically unfeasible to operate narrow body aircraft and fulfill capacity.

As much as many of us would like to see a return of the '70s and '80s where main line carriers operate to smaller domestic markets, it just isn't in the economic feasibility of most carriers. What I do see happening is a continued market of ejets but likely with reduced frequency.

I can tell you in our market a metropolis of about 200,000 people, we used to have over 15 flights per day to Chicago O'Hare by various carriers. That is now been reduced to about seven flights per day and has held at that capacity for the last 7 to 8 years.

Also regional operators like Skywest Airlines and Mesa can purchase older equipment at very affordable prices and have the infrastructure to operate them cheaply. It will be interesting to see how the industry changes over the next 5 to 6 years but I don't foresee the regional airline model vanishing.
I'll respectfully disagree with how essential this small town feed is for the legacies.
I looked at all of the cities that United cancelled Express service to. All were within 120 miles of another town with mainline service, and almost all of them were also served by both American and Delta; some with additional carriers.
Kalamazoo is a great example. About 75 miles from Grand Rapids, which United serves multiple times daily with mainline service.
RJs have the highest CASM in the business and there are very, very few profitable uses for that lift. I expect legacies to drastically scale back on regional contracts due to them being money losers.

Most of this small town feed is no longer economically viable and needs to be cut. The O&D numbers are so small to most of these cities that it won't be noticed in terms of revenue if all previous passengers decide to fly on someone else.
The small cities can be upguaged to mainline with a frequency reduction. If the city can't support a mainline flight, then the city pair should be terminated. The airline business is not a charity and the legacies need to stop serving money losing communities when residents can drive less than 2 hours to a city that can support mainline.
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Old 02-10-2022 | 11:53 AM
  #905  
Gets Weekends Off
 
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From: guppy CA
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Originally Posted by Al Czervik
It’s gonna happen any minute.
I'm still waiting to read that he's short the stock. Talk is cheap.
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Old 02-10-2022 | 01:16 PM
  #906  
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Originally Posted by Andy
I'm still waiting to read that he's short the stock. Talk is cheap.
Whether he is doing it or not, there is no shortage (pun intended) of people who are:



By way of comparison:

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Old 02-10-2022 | 01:32 PM
  #907  
Gets Weekends Off
 
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From: guppy CA
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Originally Posted by Excargodog
Whether he is doing it or not, there is no shortage (pun intended) of people who are:
ROTFLMAO! I HAVE shorted stocks. Those numbers are pretty darned low.
Have you ever shorted a stock, or are you just talking out your nether regions once again? Not puts; actual shorts.
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Old 02-10-2022 | 02:33 PM
  #908  
In a land of unicorns
 
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From: Whale FO
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Originally Posted by Andy
I'm still waiting to read that he's short the stock. Talk is cheap.
I think you are just being thick on purpose. Selling short would require me to know where and when the tipping point is. I just said I don't know it. Reading comprehension is hard I know.
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Old 02-10-2022 | 02:39 PM
  #909  
Gets Weekends Off
 
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From: guppy CA
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Originally Posted by dera
I think you are just being thick on purpose. Selling short would require me to know where and when the tipping point is. I just said I don't know it. Reading comprehension is hard I know.
Ah, yes. Because everyone KNOWS where stocks are going ahead of time.

You did the research; you stated that American's toast. Yet you're not willing to put your money where your mouth is. That's what separates you and I. I have shorted stocks that I've been sure are going to dive. It hasn't always worked out, but I've made a small fortune shorting stocks. I conclude that you're all hat, no cattle. Post when you're actually willing to put your money on the line. Until then, you're just a stupid poser.

As the general would say, tata for now.
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Old 02-10-2022 | 02:54 PM
  #910  
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Originally Posted by Andy
ROTFLMAO! I HAVE shorted stocks. Those numbers are pretty darned low.
Have you ever shorted a stock, or are you just talking out your nether regions once again? Not puts; actual shorts.
Low? That’s judged relative to similar stocks. Here is the Delta comparison:



and here are the stats for SWA:




So who is the outlier in the group?
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