View Poll Results: Will AA declare bankruptcy?
Yes



219
70.65%
No



91
29.35%
Voters: 310. You may not vote on this poll
Bankruptcy
#901
#902
In a land of unicorns
Joined: Apr 2014
Posts: 7,070
Likes: 102
From: Whale FO
AAGs issue is also that additional credit requires them to hold more cash. They used to need around 7 billion in cash (this was early 2020), they have since borrowed 15 billion more so they must be close to 10 billion required. There will be a tipping point, obviously no-one knows where that will be.
#903
AAGs issue is also that additional credit requires them to hold more cash. They used to need around 7 billion in cash (this was early 2020), they have since borrowed 15 billion more so they must be close to 10 billion required. There will be a tipping point, obviously no-one knows where that will be.
It’s gonna happen any minute.
#904
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Mar 2006
Posts: 5,213
Likes: 14
From: guppy CA
The regionals will always have a necessary place in the industry. There are select markets where it is economically unfeasible to operate narrow body aircraft and fulfill capacity.
As much as many of us would like to see a return of the '70s and '80s where main line carriers operate to smaller domestic markets, it just isn't in the economic feasibility of most carriers. What I do see happening is a continued market of ejets but likely with reduced frequency.
I can tell you in our market a metropolis of about 200,000 people, we used to have over 15 flights per day to Chicago O'Hare by various carriers. That is now been reduced to about seven flights per day and has held at that capacity for the last 7 to 8 years.
Also regional operators like Skywest Airlines and Mesa can purchase older equipment at very affordable prices and have the infrastructure to operate them cheaply. It will be interesting to see how the industry changes over the next 5 to 6 years but I don't foresee the regional airline model vanishing.
As much as many of us would like to see a return of the '70s and '80s where main line carriers operate to smaller domestic markets, it just isn't in the economic feasibility of most carriers. What I do see happening is a continued market of ejets but likely with reduced frequency.
I can tell you in our market a metropolis of about 200,000 people, we used to have over 15 flights per day to Chicago O'Hare by various carriers. That is now been reduced to about seven flights per day and has held at that capacity for the last 7 to 8 years.
Also regional operators like Skywest Airlines and Mesa can purchase older equipment at very affordable prices and have the infrastructure to operate them cheaply. It will be interesting to see how the industry changes over the next 5 to 6 years but I don't foresee the regional airline model vanishing.
I looked at all of the cities that United cancelled Express service to. All were within 120 miles of another town with mainline service, and almost all of them were also served by both American and Delta; some with additional carriers.
Kalamazoo is a great example. About 75 miles from Grand Rapids, which United serves multiple times daily with mainline service.
RJs have the highest CASM in the business and there are very, very few profitable uses for that lift. I expect legacies to drastically scale back on regional contracts due to them being money losers.
Most of this small town feed is no longer economically viable and needs to be cut. The O&D numbers are so small to most of these cities that it won't be noticed in terms of revenue if all previous passengers decide to fly on someone else.
The small cities can be upguaged to mainline with a frequency reduction. If the city can't support a mainline flight, then the city pair should be terminated. The airline business is not a charity and the legacies need to stop serving money losing communities when residents can drive less than 2 hours to a city that can support mainline.
#907
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Mar 2006
Posts: 5,213
Likes: 14
From: guppy CA
Have you ever shorted a stock, or are you just talking out your nether regions once again? Not puts; actual shorts.
#908
In a land of unicorns
Joined: Apr 2014
Posts: 7,070
Likes: 102
From: Whale FO
#909
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Mar 2006
Posts: 5,213
Likes: 14
From: guppy CA
You did the research; you stated that American's toast. Yet you're not willing to put your money where your mouth is. That's what separates you and I. I have shorted stocks that I've been sure are going to dive. It hasn't always worked out, but I've made a small fortune shorting stocks. I conclude that you're all hat, no cattle. Post when you're actually willing to put your money on the line. Until then, you're just a stupid poser.
As the general would say, tata for now.
#910

and here are the stats for SWA:

So who is the outlier in the group?
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