View Poll Results: Will AA declare bankruptcy?
Yes
219
70.65%
No
91
29.35%
Voters: 310. You may not vote on this poll
Bankruptcy
07-24-2022 | 04:50 PM
#1011
On Reserve
Joined: Jul 2017
Posts: 58
Likes: 0
Does anyone actually understand the terms and rates of airline financing? How often do they have to refinance their debt? In times of record inflation, debt is good to have, if done properly. My 2.75% mortgage looks like free money right now.
AA will lose 5000 high cost pilots in the next several years. Fuel prices will go down. Business travel will return and so will international.
On paper, it's not a pretty picture. However, I'm not terribly worried... yet.
AA will lose 5000 high cost pilots in the next several years. Fuel prices will go down. Business travel will return and so will international.
On paper, it's not a pretty picture. However, I'm not terribly worried... yet.
07-24-2022 | 04:54 PM
#1013
Line Holder
Joined: Dec 2017
Posts: 289
Likes: 51
Total liabilities aren't debt. But like Kyle, some people don't seem to get it. AAL's debt load is roughly 35bn. That's ~4bn more than UAL.
https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AAL/american-airlines-group/long-term-debt
https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/UAL/united-airlines-holdings-inc/long-term-debt
[MENTION=64114]Floy[/MENTION] and [MENTION=112306]FenderGL[/MENTION] Don't let the negativity on these forums get to your head. Take the first legacy class and don't commute.
07-24-2022 | 05:30 PM
#1014
Quarantined
Joined: Mar 2018
Posts: 181
Likes: 0
Thank god Kyle the freelance travel blogger figured it all out. Institutions such as Vanguard and BlackRock must be clueless.
Total liabilities aren't debt. But like Kyle, some people don't seem to get it. AAL's debt load is roughly 35bn. That's ~4bn more than UAL.
https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/c...long-term-debt
https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/c...long-term-debt
[MENTION=64114]Floy[/MENTION] and [MENTION=112306]FenderGL[/MENTION] Don't let the negativity on these forums get to your head. Take the first legacy class and don't commute.
Total liabilities aren't debt. But like Kyle, some people don't seem to get it. AAL's debt load is roughly 35bn. That's ~4bn more than UAL.
https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/c...long-term-debt
https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/c...long-term-debt
[MENTION=64114]Floy[/MENTION] and [MENTION=112306]FenderGL[/MENTION] Don't let the negativity on these forums get to your head. Take the first legacy class and don't commute.
Total liabilities isn’t total debt, but long term debt isn’t total debt either.
Folks keep citing current debt or long term debt. Current debt = debt that matures within 12 months. Long term debt = debt that matures in greater than 12 months. Current + Long term debt = Total debt.
Total debt is somewhere around ~$45B for AAG. DL is ~$34B and UA is ~$39B. That said, AAG seems to be trending in a better direction than the last couple years according to some of the credit rating organizations. Fitch listed AAG as “stable” most recently in March:
https://www.fitchratings.com/researc...ble-03-03-2022
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07-24-2022 | 06:06 PM
#1015
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Jun 2018
Posts: 184
Likes: 0
Total liabilities isn’t total debt, but long term debt isn’t total debt either.
Folks keep citing current debt or long term debt. Current debt = debt that matures within 12 months. Long term debt = debt that matures in greater than 12 months. Current + Long term debt = Total debt.
Total debt is somewhere around ~$45B for AAG. DL is ~$34B and UA is ~$39B. That said, AAG seems to be trending in a better direction than the last couple years according to some of the credit rating organizations. Fitch listed AAG as “stable” most recently in March:
https://www.fitchratings.com/researc...ble-03-03-2022
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Folks keep citing current debt or long term debt. Current debt = debt that matures within 12 months. Long term debt = debt that matures in greater than 12 months. Current + Long term debt = Total debt.
Total debt is somewhere around ~$45B for AAG. DL is ~$34B and UA is ~$39B. That said, AAG seems to be trending in a better direction than the last couple years according to some of the credit rating organizations. Fitch listed AAG as “stable” most recently in March:
https://www.fitchratings.com/researc...ble-03-03-2022
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07-24-2022 | 07:24 PM
#1016
Perennial Reserve
Joined: Jan 2018
Posts: 14,237
Likes: 254
Total debt is somewhere around ~$45B for AAG. DL is ~$34B and UA is ~$39B. That said, AAG seems to be trending in a better direction than the last couple years according to some of the credit rating organizations. Fitch listed AAG as “stable” most recently in March:
https://www.fitchratings.com/researc...ble-03-03-2022
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B- is worse than that.
it’s the same creditworthiness as Angola…
I’m not dumping on AA or their management. Nobody anticipated COVID and the government handled it poorly. Nobody anticipated the government would so mismanage the economic recovery to produce today’s inflation (OK, maybe Rand Paul and Larry Summers did. https://www.politico.com/news/2022/0...22-22-00047233), but don’t be in denial about the fix they are in. They are going to have to refinance almost all that debt they took on when interest rates were low at far higher interest rates and they are already paying $2 Billion a year in debt service even at current rates.
That is not an enviable situation to be in.
07-25-2022 | 12:52 AM
#1017
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Feb 2012
Posts: 4,601
Likes: 0
From: CRJ FO
The government mismanaged just about every aspect of Covid. Lockdowns etc simply didn’t work. Look at the daily case rates/deaths today. They’re higher than they were in 2020 and 2021. Yet here we all are going about our lives. So what was it all for? Why shut everything down and pump Trillions into the economy and induce generational inflation and economic doldrums?
07-25-2022 | 03:22 AM
#1018
Line Holder
Joined: Apr 2018
Posts: 700
Likes: 0
The government mismanaged just about every aspect of Covid. Lockdowns etc simply didn’t work. Look at the daily case rates/deaths today. They’re higher than they were in 2020 and 2021. Yet here we all are going about our lives. So what was it all for? Why shut everything down and pump Trillions into the economy and induce generational inflation and economic doldrums?
Wasn't that the plan? To get the vaccination rate approaching 70% or better so that the lockdowns could be lifted, allowing us to eventually get on with our lives?
Hindsight is 20/20, but as I recall there was/is broad world-wide scientific consensus that lockdowns in the early days was an integral part of the strategy to deal with the pandemic.
I'm sure it was understood that that decision would unfortunately result in some negative economic consequences. How bad it would be, that's another question that we're currently in the process of discovering.
Last edited by All Bizniz; 07-25-2022 at 03:53 AM.
07-25-2022 | 03:32 AM
#1019
You scratched my anchor
Joined: Feb 2011
Posts: 5,126
Likes: 84
We're at 80% of the population with at least one dose, and approx 70% of the population fully vaccinated atm.
Wasn't that the plan? To get the vaccination rate approaching 70% or better so that the lockdowns could be lifted, allowing us to eventually get on with our lives?
Hindsight is 20/20, but as I recall there was/is broad world-wide scientific consensus that lockdowns in the early days was an integral part of the strategy to deal with the pandemic. I'm sure the possible economic fall out from this decision was well understood...
Wasn't that the plan? To get the vaccination rate approaching 70% or better so that the lockdowns could be lifted, allowing us to eventually get on with our lives?
Hindsight is 20/20, but as I recall there was/is broad world-wide scientific consensus that lockdowns in the early days was an integral part of the strategy to deal with the pandemic. I'm sure the possible economic fall out from this decision was well understood...
07-25-2022 | 03:35 AM
#1020
Quarantined
Joined: Mar 2018
Posts: 181
Likes: 0
Stable at B- is not good. This is a Fitch rating of B.
B- is worse than that.
it’s the same creditworthiness as Angola…
I’m not dumping on AA or their management. Nobody anticipated COVID and the government handled it poorly. Nobody anticipated the government would so mismanage the economic recovery to produce today’s inflation (OK, maybe Rand Paul and Larry Summers did. https://www.politico.com/news/2022/0...22-22-00047233), but don’t be in denial about the fix they are in. They are going to have to refinance almost all that debt they took on when interest rates were low at far higher interest rates and they are already paying $2 Billion a year in debt service even at current rates.
That is not an enviable situation to be in.
B- is worse than that.
it’s the same creditworthiness as Angola…
I’m not dumping on AA or their management. Nobody anticipated COVID and the government handled it poorly. Nobody anticipated the government would so mismanage the economic recovery to produce today’s inflation (OK, maybe Rand Paul and Larry Summers did. https://www.politico.com/news/2022/0...22-22-00047233), but don’t be in denial about the fix they are in. They are going to have to refinance almost all that debt they took on when interest rates were low at far higher interest rates and they are already paying $2 Billion a year in debt service even at current rates.
That is not an enviable situation to be in.
I don’t recall saying that Fitch’s stable rating (B-) meant good; that would be BBB. Their rating went from negative outlook to stable over the past two rating periods, which is what I said.
And let’s be clear, dumping on AA is most of what you do on APC. I have no vested interest in AA other than my fellow industry pilots that I want nothing but good for, but it’s nothing short of comical to say you aren’t dumping on AA.
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