I stick with my guess of Q1 '22. Upthread I mentioned the rumors around DL hiring as early as Q4 this year. While DL didn't officially furlough, they had a large number of early outs, a very large number of people sitting UNA (unassigned) for awhile, and some new hires who never made it through the initial cycle. This is in addition to fleet retirements and base closures that shuffled alot of bodies.

The point of mentioning DL is that AA has all of that as well as substantially more projected (pre-Rona, so some adjustment via early outs) retirements over the next 5-10 years. Will AA go into 2022 a smaller airline that it was in Q1 2020? Yes, but so will DL and UA. Just to maintain that smaller airline in the face of retirements, AA will have to hire. In order to fly the summer '22 schedule, grab market share, and eventually return to its previous size as the industry recovers, AA will have to hire. Take all that for what it's worth, but I also wouldn't give into the apocalyptic doom and gloom.