Two years ago, we were bringing in 100-120 new hires a month, and I was seeing an average increase of 65 seniority numbers a month. You could upgrade in 18 months or less; if you waited 2 or 3 years you could upgrade into a line at a junior base or maybe even get into the base you were currently at as an FO. Guys were going to mow cost carriers without upgrading. Eventually regionals can only get so big due to scope and how many airplanes they have (over simplified but you get the idea), meaning we won’t hire infinitely and guys have to move on somewhere. Last year SAPA said only ≈150 guys (out of over 5000) would be approaching mandatory retirement in the next couple years. So in my mind all this hiring seems to anticipate attrition (to majors and LCC). It also seems to me that they want it have a lot of pilots trained and in place for all the 175 and CRJ700 coming online in the next year (around 50 aircraft). Whether these planes are just a 1 for 1 replacement of aging fleets, or CRJ200s, or perhaps (but hopefully not) at the expense of another carrier’s flying (since scope limits large RJs, there can only be a finite number of 175s and 900s) is a topic that can be speculated endlessly. At the end of the day, I don’t think we’re hiring just for the sake of building the seniority list. Prior to COVID, a new hire could hold almost any base on any equipment within a year of IOE, the exceptions being PDX and SAN.

Now, whether you’d be on eternal reserve or not…at one point bases like DFW would have 75-80 lineholders and 30-35 reserves. You’d wait a while to get in, then end up being the very bottom guy. You’re home based now, but 30 people are ahead of you. Meanwhile you just transferred out of Detroit and that same month DTW had about 160 lineholders and about 5 total reserves. Always a moving target.