If one looks at those leaving, it is PRIMARILY senior FOs leaving to ACMI and ULLCs. There are a FEW that are leaving to majors whether be UAL/DAL/FDX/UPS. Those few that are leaving to a major are likely prior military that weren’t current or very low time when they came here or had some other “distinguishing” qualifier. There are VERY few leaving that are line holding captains, which if you align all the data says those facts still aren’t favoring off the street hiring of regional captains. We’ll see what the next six months really holds as new applications at the majors of that group gets looked at.

Because of this lull, and displacements, the seniority list has very much stratified. There are plenty of FOs with the flight time to upgrade but not seniority to do so. Those are primarily the ones leaving. There MAY come a time a few years down the road where this lull in hiring catches up to those leaving and ENY doesn’t have enough qualified FOs. That could lead to DECs again, since ENY has been lagging everyone else in hiring, and that could lead to forced upgrades, but you are looking at way down the road.

When you bid for upgrade, you are bidding for a base and an aircraft. But that base and aircraft has to be available to get it. Let’s say you want to be a 175 captain in ORD. It can be on your bid, but there has to be a vacancy. You can’t just say I want to be a 175 captain or I want to be a captain in DFW. Your bid has to be base and equipment. But you can easily put your bid in to include both aircraft in DFW or all three bases in 175 and you will end up with what is available if your seniority can hold something you bid.