There’s more risk of a merger with Frontier potentially, and risk of base closure in general but people aren’t going to suddenly want to shell out a bunch more cash for an airport experience once every 12-24 months. The demand for cheap travel is never going to go away.

I’ve had a couple of Frontier 4-6 year captains on the Jumpseat recently commuting. They’ve been talking about how they can drop down to 60hrs half of the year and 70hrs the other half and that works out to about 18-20 days off a month and how it’s been a great part time job for them. Quick math put them at a little under $200k a year including the DC contribution to work a week to week and a half a month. I don’t know anyone at a legacy who can do that consistently as a commuter. Living in base you’ll have the option of bidding reserve in the hopes of flying for less as well. It seems in your case you’ll have more QOL advantages going to frontier living in base if you’re not willing/allowed to move the family to a United base.